• 761 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 762 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 763 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,163 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,168 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,170 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,173 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,173 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,174 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,176 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,176 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,180 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,180 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,181 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,183 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,184 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,187 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,188 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,188 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,190 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Pending Home Sales Index Dives to 0.1%: What's Coming Up?

The reset of the year for housing looks suspect at best. The pending home sales index is a barely positive 0.1 percent.

Bloomberg Econoday sees things this way.

Highlights

Pending sales of existing homes rose only 0.1 percent in October, pointing to flat results for the rest of the year in final sales. Pending sales in October were held down by weakness in the South that offset gains elsewhere. The resale market has been soft in contrast to new homes which are having a good year.

Recent History

Resales had been flat this year but rose sharply in September as indicated in advance by the pending home sales index which tracks contract signings. Forecasters see this index rising 0.8 percent in October.

Definition

The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.


Pending Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Index

Was the pending homes sales slowdown in 2013 related to the taper tantrum and rising interest rates?

If so, there's a steep decline in store.


Mortgage Tantrum

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, anecdotes mine.

Despite treasury rates being substantially lower than the peak in 2013, mortgage rates are well into tantrum territory.

For more details of the Taper Tantrum, please see Bond Tantrum II: Mortgage Rates Up 80 Basis Points Since July.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment