• 7 hours Gold Prices Surge Above $1,800
  • 24 hours Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 1 day Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 1 day Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 2 days TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 2 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 2 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 3 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 4 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 4 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 5 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
  • 6 days Immigration Will Go Bust Without $1.2B Bailout
  • 6 days The Economics Of The Space Race
  • 7 days Why The World's Central Banks Aren't Yet Sold On Renewables
  • 8 days How Much More Cash Can Uber Burn?
  • 8 days Inside The Biggest Counterfeit Gold Scandal In Recent History
  • 8 days EU-U.S. Trade Relations Are Deteriorating
  • 9 days Over 184 Companies Have Bailed On Facebook
  • 9 days BP Sells Petrochemical Business For $5 Billion
  • 9 days U.S. Moves To Secure Domestic Rare Earth Supply
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Pending Home Sales Index Dives to 0.1%: What's Coming Up?

The reset of the year for housing looks suspect at best. The pending home sales index is a barely positive 0.1 percent.

Bloomberg Econoday sees things this way.

Highlights

Pending sales of existing homes rose only 0.1 percent in October, pointing to flat results for the rest of the year in final sales. Pending sales in October were held down by weakness in the South that offset gains elsewhere. The resale market has been soft in contrast to new homes which are having a good year.

Recent History

Resales had been flat this year but rose sharply in September as indicated in advance by the pending home sales index which tracks contract signings. Forecasters see this index rising 0.8 percent in October.

Definition

The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.


Pending Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Index

Was the pending homes sales slowdown in 2013 related to the taper tantrum and rising interest rates?

If so, there's a steep decline in store.


Mortgage Tantrum

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, anecdotes mine.

Despite treasury rates being substantially lower than the peak in 2013, mortgage rates are well into tantrum territory.

For more details of the Taper Tantrum, please see Bond Tantrum II: Mortgage Rates Up 80 Basis Points Since July.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment