The good news is:
• All of the major indices closed at all time highs last Friday.
The Negatives
The market is overbought.
The Positives
Last week new lows disappeared while new highs soared to their highest levels in several years and the secondaries continue to lead the way up.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.
OTC HL Ratio rose to 92.5%, tying its level of a little over a week ago, its highest level in about 3 years.
The next chart is similar to the first one except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio rose to 92%.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green.
OTC NH hit its highest level in 3 years.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH has been calculated from NYSE data.
NY NH closed at its highest level by a hair.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of December during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2015. There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures and stronger during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of December.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 4 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1964-4 | 0.41% | -0.05% | -0.21% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.42% |
| 1968-4 | 0.03% | 0.42% | 0.00% | -0.29% | -0.08% | 0.09% |
| 1972-4 | -0.24% | -0.42% | -0.45% | -0.25% | 0.15% | -1.20% |
| 1976-4 | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.29% | 0.01% | -0.31% | 0.02% |
| 1980-4 | 0.32% | 0.03% | 1.12% | 1.54% | 0.46% | 3.46% |
| 1984-4 | -0.24% | 2.09% | 0.59% | -0.16% | -0.09% | 2.19% |
| 1988-4 | -0.27% | -0.33% | -0.06% | 0.06% | 0.75% | 0.16% |
| 1992-4 | -0.16% | -0.61% | -0.17% | 1.36% | 0.43% | 0.85% |
| Avg | -0.09% | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.56% | 0.25% | 1.34% |
| 1996-4 | -1.86% | 0.42% | 1.50% | 0.82% | -0.56% | 0.32% |
| 2000-4 | 3.35% | -2.76% | -3.72% | -3.34% | -2.76% | -9.23% |
| 2004-4 | 0.96% | 0.53% | 0.13% | -0.76% | -0.51% | 0.34% |
| 2008-4 | -2.10% | 5.41% | -0.67% | -1.71% | 0.77% | 1.70% |
| 2012-4 | 1.32% | 1.46% | -0.33% | 0.20% | -0.96% | 1.68% |
| Avg | 0.33% | 1.01% | -0.62% | -0.96% | -0.80% | -1.04% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 4 1964 - 2012 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.13% | 0.48% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.20% | 0.06% |
| Win% | 50% | 62% | 42% | 54% | 46% | 85% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2015 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.17% | 0.25% |
| Win% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 58% | 60% | 60% |
| SPX Presidential Year 4 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1956-4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.78% | 0.65% | -0.36% |
| 1960-4 | 0.35% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.28% | 0.92% | 0.97% |
| 1964-4 | -0.25% | -0.28% | 0.40% | 0.42% | 0.46% | 0.75% |
| 1968-4 | -0.45% | -0.41% | 0.00% | 0.29% | -0.59% | -1.16% |
| 1972-4 | 0.22% | -0.39% | -0.08% | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.50% |
| Avg | -0.03% | -0.25% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.29% | -0.06% |
| 1976-4 | -0.07% | 0.42% | 0.07% | -0.32% | -0.52% | -0.42% |
| 1980-4 | 0.17% | 0.89% | 1.75% | 0.08% | 0.53% | 3.42% |
| 1984-4 | 0.49% | 2.83% | -0.57% | -0.47% | -0.52% | 1.76% |
| 1988-4 | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.36% | -0.37% | 0.73% | -0.26% |
| 1992-4 | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.24% | 0.91% | 1.34% | 1.74% |
| Avg | 0.04% | 0.80% | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.31% | 1.25% |
| 1996-4 | -1.05% | 0.70% | 0.76% | 1.94% | 0.42% | 2.77% |
| 2000-4 | 0.75% | -0.65% | -0.82% | -1.40% | -2.15% | -4.26% |
| 2004-4 | 0.90% | 0.39% | 0.19% | -0.21% | -0.75% | 0.53% |
| 2008-4 | -1.27% | 5.14% | -0.96% | -2.12% | 0.29% | 1.09% |
| 2012-4 | 1.19% | 1.15% | -0.76% | 0.55% | -0.94% | 1.19% |
| Avg | 0.10% | 1.35% | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.62% | 0.26% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 4 1956 - 2012 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.04% | 0.69% | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.01% | 0.48% |
| Win% | 50% | 57% | 36% | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2015 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.45% |
| Win% | 56% | 50% | 53% | 48% | 60% | 62% |
Conclusion
The major indices hit all time highs and the breadth indicators finally caught up with them. Seasonality is positive for the rest of the month.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday December 16 than they were on Friday December 9.
Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.
These reports are archived at: http://www.safehaven.com/
Good Luck,
YTD W 18 / L 21 / T 10
