• 11 hours COVID Vaccine Distribution Would Be A Big Win For Amazon
  • 3 days Under COVID, The Rich Got Richer
  • 4 days Will Biden Lift Sanctions On Venezuela?
  • 4 days How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom
  • 5 days India Looks To Import More Venezuelan Oil Under Biden
  • 5 days 3 Unstoppable Stocks With A Biden Boost
  • 5 days The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021?
  • 6 days Biden Looks To Rejoin Paris Climate Agreement
  • 6 days Capital One Fined Again For Money-Laundering Failure
  • 7 days The Star-Studded Fund Backing Clean Energy Startups
  • 8 days The Unexpected Retail Segment On Track To Hit $68B
  • 10 days Oil Demand Falters On New Wave Of Lockdowns
  • 11 days Signal, Telegram Gain Ground As Social Censorship Breaks Headlines
  • 11 days Investors Should Be Worried About Tech Stocks
  • 13 days Battle For Market Share Intensifies In COVID Streaming War
  • 15 days Censorship Is Now Private, And That’s Scary
  • 18 days Markets Hit ‘Ignore’ Over Capitol Coup
  • 19 days Tesla’s China Strategy Is Yet Another ReasonTo Double Down
  • 21 days NYSE Reverses China Company Delisting Plans … For Now
  • 22 days The Dollar Could Remain Weak For Years To Come
Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Aristotle said, “The most hated…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

Eight major banks have been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

In a year full of surprises and challenges, the major averages had a very conformist performance deviating little from established precedents.

For example, in May '16, based on annual price advance and bottom reversal data, we gave an end-of-year price target of 2240 for the SP500.

The major averages followed the 20 year seasonal and 100 year decennial pattern very closely as well:

Dow Industrials Correlation

SPY Correlation

QQQ Correlation

The more pressing question now is what can we expect from 2017? Looking at the decennial pattern, the picture is mixed: 6 bullish and 6 bearish years. Year 17 in the 20 year cycle, however, tends to be more bearish than the average, and produces steeper declines.

20-Year Cycle

1987 stands out as the DJIA closed barely positive following a 43% drop in October. It should be noted, however, that the index had risen about 250% between 1982 and 1987. Currently, the DJIA is up 100% from the 2012 low, and 200+% from the '09 low.

In terms of longevity, this is the second longest lasting rally of the last 130 years. Therefore, odds favor a 20+% correction any time now.

Dow Historical Rallies 1896-2014

Going back to the decennial cycle we notice that bullish and bearish years follow a different seasonal path. Bearish years usually follow a down-up-down-up pattern (May 19, July 14, October 27), while bullish years follow an up-flat-up-down-up pattern (January 20, April 7, July 25, October 31).

For now, we'll start with a clean slate based on average projections and a few key angles:

S&P500 Daily Chart Projections
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment