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Unlucky Friday the 13th?

The stock market is nearing the ten week cycle low from November 4th, 2016. The daily Bollinger bands are tightly squeezed together suggesting a break-out one way or the other (an expansion of volatility). The SPX broke the uptrend line today only to close back above the line. Normally, this is a sign of strength, but the OBV did not confirm the recent highs suggesting the smart money has already moved away from the market. I would call this a sign of weakness.

All it takes is a straw to break the proverbial camel's back and that straw could enter the picture on Friday the 13th. We had a similar set up on Friday September 9th, 2016. This is not a prediction, but rather a head's up.

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

If a Friday the 13th event takes place (which is possible), I would then shift my March 2017 target to just down 5%, somewhere in the 2160's.

GDX looks as though it could fall hard here too into next week, just like early September. We caught the recent decline, then the up move into today (from yesterday), and then went short again near 23.18.

 


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