• 11 hours Homeowners Experiment With Risky New Investment Trend
  • 14 hours U.S. Tech Stocks Look Increasingly Vulnerable
  • 17 hours De Beers To Expand World’s Most Profitable Diamond Mine
  • 19 hours Ford CEO Gets Raise After Massive Layoff Round
  • 1 day Germany’s Flirtation With Recession Could Cripple The Global Economy
  • 2 days Where To Look As Gold Miners Inch Higher
  • 2 days Google Faces Billions In Fines From European Regulators
  • 3 days The Energy Industry Has A Millennial Problem
  • 3 days Russian Banks Scramble For Sanction Loopholes
  • 4 days Gold ETFs Take A Hit After Four-Month Run
  • 4 days European Union Takes Aim At Ten New Tax Havens
  • 5 days Goldman Defends Trillion-Dollar Corporate Buyback Spree
  • 5 days $600 Billion At Risk As Boeing Fallout Continues
  • 5 days Venezuela Has Yet Another Crisis Developing
  • 5 days Wells Fargo Accused Of “Ongoing Lawlessness”
  • 6 days Hollywood Agency Returns $400M Investment To Saudi Wealth Fund
  • 6 days Why Twitter's CEO Is Backing A New Bitcoin Boom
  • 6 days U.S. Treasury To Employ “Extraordinary Measures” To Fend Off Default
  • 6 days Lobster, Golf Carts And Fidget Spinners: What’s In The Federal Budget?
  • 7 days Italy Launches New Welfare Experiment
Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Aristotle said, “The most hated…

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

Eight major banks have been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Treasury Bears Beware: Explosive Short-Covering Rally Coming Up

Zerohedge has an interesting post out today called Treasury Specs Are So Short, It Is Now A 4 Sigma Event. Let's take a look at his charts and a couple of mine.

According to the latest breakdown of short positions by Deutsche Bank, speculators increased their net shorts by $7.7 billion in 10Y cash equivalents to $99.4 billion, a third successive week of record low positions.


Aggregate Treasury Spec Shorts

Aggregate Treasury Spec Shorts


5-year Treasury Spec Shorts

5-year Treasury Spec Shorts


10-year Treasury Spec Shorts

10-year Treasury Spec Shorts


30-year Treasury Spec Shorts

30-year Treasury Spec Shorts


Standard Deviations Treasury Spec Shorts

Standard Deviations Treasury Spec Shorts


Eurodollars Spec Shorts

Eurodollars Spec Shorts

The above charts and comments from ZeroHedge via Deutsche Bank.


Explanations

  1. For every future short there is a future long, so the net is always zero. In this case, the commercial traders are long and the speculators are short.
  2. Eurodollars have nothing to do with euros. They are actually an interest rate play on US dollars. Short eurodollars is a bet that interest rates in US dollars will rise.


Yield Curve Monthly Chart

Yield Curve Monthly Chart
Larger Image


Yield Curve Weekly Chart

Yield Curve Weekly Chart
Larger Image


Short Covering Setup

  1. Belief in the Trump economy is extremely high.
  2. Treasury Shorts keep piling on even as yields decline.
  3. Those short from 3-4 weeks ago are already underwater.
  4. A very explosive short-covering setup is in play. All it takes is one very bad economic report and yields will plunge.

Related post: Trump Euphoria Sets In; Small Businesses Optimism Surges Most Since 1980: What's It Mean?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment