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Brad Gudgeon

Brad Gudgeon

BluStar Market Timer Investment Philosophy: The stock market is currently in a technical Elliott Wave Bear Market Rally. It has been exhibiting A-B-C type waves…

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The Long Awaited 4% Pullback May Be Close

Last time I wrote, I said that a 10-week bottom was close and could come as late January 31. Venus square Saturn (today) has a variance of +/- 2 TD's, the ten-week low can come as late as January 31 and the 16 TD low can come as late as +4 or 20 TD's (January 31).

The odds are high in my book for a big down draft on Monday into Tuesday next week. My target is 2205 on the S&P 500 (we'll see) Tuesday. There are positive astros for a peak on Feb 10 with Mercury sextile Venus. If we drop hard over the next 2 trading days, the pattern would suggest a strong rebound rally to new highs by then, likely somewhere in the 2310's.

There is the possibility we see S&P 500 1991/92 by the third week of March, or a 14% drop. I was thinking that early on, doubted it, now I again think it is possible.

Right now, the sentiment is out the roof positive (bullish), which makes me a very short term bear. I have some negative non-confirmations on a lot of my indicators. Thursday sported an evening star. Any pull back next week should be bought for one final, strong rally, IMO (at least in this phase of the market).

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

My subs are heavily short right now in SPXS, UVXY and SPY puts, getting ready to buy the dip.

 


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