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Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

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Cycles for Gold and USD

Did Gold find a Trading Cycle Low last Friday? Perhaps. Silver was definitely leading the way as it often does at bottoms. But Silver also delivers many head-fakes and with the USD is due for a new Trading Cycle bounce, Gold will likely move lower next week.

My first chart on the USD, shows it is deep in its timing band to find a DCL or short term Trading Cycle Low. Thursday may well have been the TC Low I was looking for. If so, to confirm a new Trading Cycle the USD should close above the 10ema and then test/break my Red down trend cycle line.

I also show the USD in deep in its timing band to start its move into its next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). If I am correct, the USD should top quickly to form a H&S pattern before moving into its next ICL. Next weeks trigger points for a cycle turn are the FMOC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

If the USD does bounce at least into the FMOC on Wed, then Gold and the PM Complex will likely move to a lower low next week, perhaps testing the 50% Fib level at 1172 (62% is at 1161). Gold is on day 28, however, and towards the later stages of its normal timing band to find a DCL or TC Low as well. And it I am correct that the USD will move into its longer IC Low, then Gold and PMs, should have a very bullish second Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low in December.

Daly Gold Chart

 

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