• 3 hours Russian Central Bank Eyes Gold-Backed Crypto
  • 9 hours Alberta’s Unlikely Alliance With The Nuclear Industry
  • 1 day The True Cost Of Opportunity In America
  • 1 day Why Investors Shouldn't Ignore Gold Stocks
  • 2 days Facebook Scrubs Over 2 Billion Fake Accounts
  • 2 days Dow Scrambles To Avoid Fifth Straight Weekly Loss
  • 3 days Is This The World’s First Truly Democratic Stock Exchange?
  • 3 days India’s Wealthiest Set To Hold $23 Trillion By 2028
  • 3 days First Quarter Profits Slip For World's Top Oil Companies
  • 3 days The Yuan May Be China's Biggest Weakness
  • 4 days Hedge Funds Having A Banner Year
  • 4 days Disney Heiress Asks “Is There Such A Thing As Too Much?”
  • 4 days BHP Turns Bullish On EVs
  • 4 days Investors Turn Bullish On America’s Nuclear Decommissioning Business
  • 5 days The $90M Inflatable Rabbit Redefining Modern Art
  • 5 days Huawei’s Fate In The Air
  • 5 days Tesla Slashes Prices Again
  • 5 days The Modern History Of Financial Entropy
  • 6 days Italy’s Central Bank Embraces Sustainable Investing
  • 6 days Trump Lifts Metals Tariffs To Cool Simmering Trade War
Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold Intermediate Cycle Update

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

With that as background, my Gold chart shows these expectations.

  • Will Gold test or breach the Yearly Cycle downtrend line on my chart? The high probability answer based on cycle norms is yes.
  • Will gold breach this line and turn back down or move up and make a higher high than 2016 before topping in this Intermediate Cycle? Really? If I had that level of clairvoyance, I would never have a losing trade... smile
  • Cycle analysis combined with standard TA is all about developing a trading framework based on probabilities. Sorry, but I am no magician but playing the probabilities has worked out nicely for me. Cut your losers quickly and let your winners run.

An Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is the best time to buy any asset given that you sold near the top and have capital to deploy along with the mental courage to pull the trigger at the low. Most Traders buy near highs and sell in despair near ICLs. Cycle analysis is the tool we need to understand bearish investor sentiment at market lows in order to have the courage to buy at those cycle lows when most are selling in panic.

"When your Yelling, you should be Selling and when you are Crying, you should be Buying." That is, in essence, what this service is all about if you stick with me (...last year was my best trading year ever). My goal is to be buying when there is blood in the streets. Will you have the courage to follow?

So this is one reason I kept the recent Gold position additions in GDX and AGQ rather small as we are already 1.5 months into a new Intermediate Cycle and the miners are already up over 34%. This is NOT your best entry point. Ok, enough posturing and onto the Chart.

Gold is bouncing along above the 10ema and should move higher out of a Half Cycle Low if my analysis is correct. My plan is to take profits when I see signs of topping, probably up near the 1250 to 1260 level where I expect Trading Cycle #2 to top out. Out of the TC2 low, will TC3 make a higher high? It may well be possible but Time will tell...

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment