• 12 hours Hawkish Fed Sends Gold Prices Crashing
  • 2 days Bezos Is Heading To Space This Sunday
  • 5 days El Salvador’s Surprise Bitcoin Move
  • 8 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 8 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 11 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 12 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 15 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 16 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 17 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 18 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 22 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 23 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 24 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 25 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 26 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
  • 27 days Ohio Residents Brave Vaccine for Chance To Win $1M
  • 29 days Inflation Is Coming. Are You Prepared?
  • 29 days Travel Might Get Another Supersonic Disruption
  • 31 days The World Is Running Out Of 6 Key Resources
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold Intermediate Cycle Update

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

With that as background, my Gold chart shows these expectations.

  • Will Gold test or breach the Yearly Cycle downtrend line on my chart? The high probability answer based on cycle norms is yes.
  • Will gold breach this line and turn back down or move up and make a higher high than 2016 before topping in this Intermediate Cycle? Really? If I had that level of clairvoyance, I would never have a losing trade... smile
  • Cycle analysis combined with standard TA is all about developing a trading framework based on probabilities. Sorry, but I am no magician but playing the probabilities has worked out nicely for me. Cut your losers quickly and let your winners run.

An Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is the best time to buy any asset given that you sold near the top and have capital to deploy along with the mental courage to pull the trigger at the low. Most Traders buy near highs and sell in despair near ICLs. Cycle analysis is the tool we need to understand bearish investor sentiment at market lows in order to have the courage to buy at those cycle lows when most are selling in panic.

"When your Yelling, you should be Selling and when you are Crying, you should be Buying." That is, in essence, what this service is all about if you stick with me (...last year was my best trading year ever). My goal is to be buying when there is blood in the streets. Will you have the courage to follow?

So this is one reason I kept the recent Gold position additions in GDX and AGQ rather small as we are already 1.5 months into a new Intermediate Cycle and the miners are already up over 34%. This is NOT your best entry point. Ok, enough posturing and onto the Chart.

Gold is bouncing along above the 10ema and should move higher out of a Half Cycle Low if my analysis is correct. My plan is to take profits when I see signs of topping, probably up near the 1250 to 1260 level where I expect Trading Cycle #2 to top out. Out of the TC2 low, will TC3 make a higher high? It may well be possible but Time will tell...

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment