• 536 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 537 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 538 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 938 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 943 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 945 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 948 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 948 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 949 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 951 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 951 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 955 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 955 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 956 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 958 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 959 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 962 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 963 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 963 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 965 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Short Remark About an Ominous Count

This will be a very short remark, partly because I am certain that someone else must have observed this already.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined on Tuesday after having risen in each of the preceding 12 days. I was curious, and the DJIA has data going back more than a century (unlike, for example, the S&P 500, the Russell, or other indices), so I checked to see how often that has happened before.

It turns out that only three times before in history has the Dow advanced in 12 consecutive sessions. The dates of those occurrences are (listed is the last day of advance before the first decline):

July 8, 1929

December 7, 1970

January 20, 1987

The latter of these three was actually a 13-day advance, and the longest in history.

Now, the 1970 occurrence seems to be nothing special. It occurred five years into a 15-year period that saw the Dow go nowhere in nominal terms, but there was nothing special about 1971. However, anyone who invests in the stock market ought to know the significance of 1929 and 1987. It also bears noting that current market valuations are higher (in terms of the Cyclically-Adjusted PE ratio) than on any of those three days - quite a bit higher, in fact.

None of which is to say that we won't have another 10, 20, or 30-day streak ahead of us. I suspect the bulls will say "see? This same occurrence in 1929 and 1987 happened months before the denouement. We still have time to party!" And they may be right. This isn't predictive. But it, especially when compared to valuation levels second only to those seen at the peak of the "Internet Bubble," is ominous. This is a party I wouldn't mind missing.

 


P.S. Don't forget to buy my book! What's Wrong with Money: The Biggest Bubble of All. Thanks!

You can follow me @inflation_guy!

Enduring Investments is a registered investment adviser that specializes in solving inflation-related problems. Fill out the contact form at http://www.EnduringInvestments.com/contact and we will send you our latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook. And if you make sure to put your physical mailing address in the "comment" section of the contact form, we will also send you a copy of Michael Ashton's book "Maestro, My Ass!"

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment