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Daily Elliott Wave Analysis: Short-Term Alternate Wave Switch

EURUSD

Current wave 3 down - below parity.

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EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: ECOFIN Meetings, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference. USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

Howdy everyone!

I have switched to the alternate wave count today in EURUSD.
I had been expecting accceleration to the downside in a possible wave 'iii', but this simply has not materialised as of yet.
So the next best interpretation is an ongoing complex correction in wave 'ii'.
This wave count better accounts for the sideways action of the last few weeks.

The decline off mondays high is corrective looking and therefore is being viewed as part of a three wave rally in wave 'c' green.
This wave count expects another rise into the resistance at 1.0680 to complete.
From there I will begin looking for a steep decline in wave 'iii'.


GBPUSD

Wave 2 red, downtrend resumed.

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GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

A similar story is developing in Cable.
The declines of the last couple of weeks are more corrective in nature than a move back into the larger downtrend.
I have not yet switched to the alternate wave count, but the probability of that interpretation being the correct one has risen to 50% at this stage.
So, it is decision time for GBPUSD.
A move back above resistance at 1.2300 and the creation of a higher low will swing the vote in favor of the alternate count.


USDJPY

LONG

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USD/JPY 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart
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My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BSI Manufacturing Index.  USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

I have also switched to the alternate count in USDJPY.
The reason being, it seems to fit the price action better after todays action.

Although we got the rally we were expecting, it looks more like a three wave affair off the low labelled wave 'a'
This weeks rally is being viewed as wave 'b' with wave 'c' to come in a flat correction.

Wave 'c' should again find support at 113.50 before turning up into wave 'iii' brown.


DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Topping in wave (5)

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Dow Industrials 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Dow Industrials 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Dow Industrials Daily Chart
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My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

the action in the DOW today has prompted me to consider the recent all time high at 21171 as the final high in the bull market.
It may be early to say for sure, but the fact that the decline off the high is best counted in my view as a new impulse move to the downside is the first indication of the possible trend change.

The five wave form off the top, labelled in red,  seems to be completing as I write with a declining wedge as wave 5 red.
This should complete wave 'i' pink to the downside.
Wave 'ii' could rally into resistance at 21040, the previous 4th wave.
The all time high now becomes the bearish invalidation line, if the price crosses above this line again, it will be a terminal move.

The next action to watch for is a three wave rally in wave 'ii' pink.


GOLD

Current wave [B] - Long to 1550

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Gold 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Gold 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Gold Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

GOLD declined into the lower trendline again and reached a low of 1206.56 today.
This market is looking seriously oversold right now with the RSI reaching 22.96, a new 3 month low.

Every market indicator I follow along with the wave count are all pointing up from here.
Wave (c) seems to have completed a clear 5 wave pattern to the downsode off the wave (b) high.
So the next thing to watch for is the creation of a higher low in a 5/3 wave structure off nearby lows.
This will be the first signal of a turn into wave [iii] green.

 

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