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Daily Elliott Wave Analysis GOLD Back into Trend


Topped in wave (5)

30 min

Dow Jones Industrials 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Dow Jones Industrials 4-Hour Chart
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Dow Jones Industrials Daily Chart
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My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, JOLTS Job Openings.

The DOW has rallied in wave 'c' and is approaching the upper trendline.
So far the rally has been in three waves, which makes this a complex corrective structure rather than a simple flat correction.

The wave 'a' high was at 20976, with the high of the day at 20972, which suggest one more high might occur before completing wave 'ii'.
The structure off the all time high has not been very implsive so far,
But this could accellerate to the downside quickly if the curent wave count proves true.

Technically this market is very weak, momentum indicators on the 4hr chart are pointing firmly negative.
The euphoria in the market place is indicative of a significant high rather than a developing bull market.
Market action has deteriorated in interest sensitive instruments,
More than one-third of all stocks are below their 200-day moving averages.
In NYSE traded stocks, there were more new 52 week lows last week than new highs, even as the market is at all time high territory!

Every indicator of a healthy market is pointing the exact oppostite way at the moment.
Now is not the time for investing in the stock market.
I suspect the old addage, 'cash is king' will be back to haunt the market soon.

For now watch the upper trendline for signs of a turn down.


Current wave [B] - Long to 1550

30 min

Gold 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Gold 4-Hour Chart
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Gold Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, JOLTS Job Openings.

The super bullish stance I took on GOLD last night, turned out well so far.
Gold was up $25 at today's high.
Resistance at 1211 was taken out impressively, this may be enough to shift the momentum in the market back into the uptrend.

The current wave count calls for this rally to continue in a possible wave 'iii' brown, which should take the price back up to recent highs.
Technically, the price is now rising off recent extreme oversold conditions.
This augers well for the continuing bullish outlook.
Resistance at 1211 has now become support and I want to see this level hold over the coming days.


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