• 12 hours 2021 Could Be A Huge Year For Chinese Stocks
  • 1 day Shadowy Brokers Target Easy TikTok Money In New Scheme
  • 2 days Cannabis Sales Are Soaring In The United States
  • 3 days Biden Will Be A Boon For Solar Stocks
  • 4 days The Shroom Boom Is Here To Stay
  • 7 days The Gold Rally Has Finally Run Out Of Steam
  • 8 days Citibank Analyst Predicts $300k Bitcoin By End Of 2021
  • 10 days Bitcoin Lives Up To Its Safe Haven Status In A Big Way
  • 11 days 14 Million People Will Lose Unemployment Benefits On December 31st
  • 12 days Why 12 Million American Millionaires Isn’t Good News
  • 14 days Big Oil Is Paying The Price For Investing In Renewables
  • 14 days The Banking Industry’s $35 Billion Gravy Train Could Disappear
  • 15 days Did Amazon Just Democratize Prescription Drugs?
  • 17 days The Private Space Race Just Got Very Real
  • 18 days Short Sellers Are Willing Big In This Turbulent Market
  • 20 days SpaceX Gets Go-Ahead To Send Humans Into Space
  • 21 days Saudi Arabia Lost $27 Billion In Oil Crash
  • 21 days China’s Big Tech Takes A Hit As Regulators Crack Down
  • 22 days Black Friday Could Be Retailers’ Only Hope
  • 23 days Why You Should Not Dump Your Stay At Home Stocks Just Yet
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold and USD Cycles: A Roadmap

Monday will be day 6 of Gold's third Trading Cycle (TC) out of the December 2016 Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Next week's price action will be critical in determining if we will see a higher high in this Intermediate Cycle (IC) or just a secondary high that will set the IC downtrend line into the next IC Low. Based on my cycle work, I do believe the Gold Bull has resumed, however, the transitions from Bear to Bull markets are typically epic battles that take time to play out.

Wth that as background, third Trading Cycles have been pivotal for Gold over the past 5 years as only bullish 3rd TC I can find on the charts over this period was during the first 6 months of 2016 out of the December 2015 YCL. That 3rd TC topped on day 17. Other than that one, my chart work shows that every other 3rd Trading Cycle since the 2011 ATH topped on or before day 11 (many topped on or before day 9). My intent here is not be be overly bearish going into next week but rather to provide you with the best guidance I can based on recent cycle history. This post shows the potential transition from Bear to Bull in the Gold market but you can see that it is still a work in process as we enter next week.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/12/anatomy-of-a-bear-market/

This weekend, I will focus on Weekly charts for a longer term perspective. From a daily chart outlook, I don't have much to add to this post from late last week.

Again, Gold is on day 6 on Monday, and the following Monday would be day 11. I will be watching closely for topping action especially since the USD is deep in its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low. That said, the USD's TC's have been running longer than the normal timing band lately so we could see some more downside action in the days ahead.

Weekly Gold Chart

Weekly Silver Chart

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners TF Weekly Chart

My last chart is a weekly on the USD since last May's Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Note that Price is nearing the 30weam where the dollar has found support at recent lows. Remember that a rising 30ema on the weekly that supports price at major lows is bullish (Classic Weinstein Stage 2 Bull market price action).

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment