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Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

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Gold and Gaps

First, let me say that a new high by Gold in week 16 of this current Intermediate Cycle is an extremely positive development as we now have a setup that should ensure that Gold has a Right Translated cycle that makes a higher Intermediate Low than the December 2016 YCL. Should this play out to Cycle norms, the next Intermediate Low will be an excellent buying opportunity regardless if you are adding to positions or restocking the shelf. My current expectation is that the next IC Low will be in the May/June timeframe with May being a strong possibility.

Regarding today's action, remember that this spike up in Gold and PM's was a "news driven" event. Should things escalate in Syria over the next week or so, Gold will likely benefit but if this turns out to be just a warning shot across the bow, the rally will likely fade as it is getting late in Gold's 3rd Trading Cycle.

Lastly, you know my view on gaps, especially near where one would expect a top. Breakaway Gaps are seen at or near major lows and not in the area of where a timing band is signaling a top. I view the the gap up today as being very similar to what we saw with the SPX in late Feb where we had a classic Island reversal.

Here are some charts of GLD, SLV and GDX showing todays Gaps.

Added: A late day update on SLV showing it has more than closed its gap from this morning. A close below the 200ma and the 10ema would confirm for me that it has started its move into a TC3 Low here

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Daily Chart

iShares Silver Trust Daily Chart 1

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF Daily Chart

iShares Silver Trust Daily Chart 2

 

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