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Surf City

Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

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USD Cycle Update

This Update will provide both a near term and long term update on the USD an where I think it stands in its short and long term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the past 6 Trading Cycles. The second shows a potential Blue Fork Channel that should hold it. USD did find a TC low on day 17 last week.

Remember that I am still expecting Gold to find its next Intermediate Cycle Low in the May/June timeframe probably when Gold also finds its Trading Cycle 4 low. Basically I don't see how Gold can find an ICL with the USD moving lower right now. Therefore I believe the dollar has found a short term low.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 1

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 2

Longer term, I do see the USD topping in 2017 for its longer term 15 Year Super Cycle. It may have topped already but, if so, markets almost always have a retest. So my expectations are that we will see at least one more run by the USD that will test the recent highs. My last two charts are longer term weekly versions that show the various support and resistance I am tracking. The first chart shows the Blue uptrend from early 2014 which has been providing critical support since the May 2016 YCL. This line is now being tested quite frequently and the more a line gets tested, the more likely it is to break down, IMO. The last chart show we are near the bottom of my Blue channel but also near the top of the Purple Channel.

The last thing to note on these two weekly charts are the long term divergences on both the RSI and MACD as the USD has moved higher. My last chart shows a fractal pattern of these same divergences at the USD's last 15 Year Super Cycle top.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart 1

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart 2

 

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