• 3 days Bitcoin Lives Up To Its Safe Haven Status In A Big Way
  • 3 days 14 Million People Will Lose Unemployment Benefits On December 31st
  • 5 days Why 12 Million American Millionaires Isn’t Good News
  • 6 days Big Oil Is Paying The Price For Investing In Renewables
  • 7 days The Banking Industry’s $35 Billion Gravy Train Could Disappear
  • 8 days Did Amazon Just Democratize Prescription Drugs?
  • 9 days The Private Space Race Just Got Very Real
  • 11 days Short Sellers Are Willing Big In This Turbulent Market
  • 12 days SpaceX Gets Go-Ahead To Send Humans Into Space
  • 13 days Saudi Arabia Lost $27 Billion In Oil Crash
  • 14 days China’s Big Tech Takes A Hit As Regulators Crack Down
  • 15 days Black Friday Could Be Retailers’ Only Hope
  • 16 days Why You Should Not Dump Your Stay At Home Stocks Just Yet
  • 17 days The Real Reason Why Uber And Lyft Stocks Have Soared Nearly 50%
  • 19 days Bitcoin Heads Towards $16,000 And No One’s Cashing In
  • 20 days Elon Musk’s $250 Tesla Tequila Is Already Sold Out
  • 21 days Will The San Francisco Wealth Tax Spark An Exodus Of The Rich?
  • 22 days The Fin-Tech IPO Of The Century Just Got Crushed
  • 23 days UK Bookies Report Largest-Ever Political Bet Ahead Of Election Results
  • 24 days Better Safe Than Sorry: 5 Alternative Investment Plays
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Nadia Simmons

Nadia Simmons

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in stocks, currencies, and commodities. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market…

Contact Author

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Forex Trading Alert: USD/CAD - Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally?

Forex Trading Alert originally published on April 27, 2017, 7:22 AM


 

Earlier today, the greenback moved lower against the Canadian dollar, which pushed USD/CAD below the December high and the previously-broken resistance zone. Is it enough to trigger further deterioration?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

EUR/USD: short (a stop-loss order at 1.1052; the initial downside target at 1.0521)
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: long (a stop-loss order at 107.62; the initial upside target at 111.16)
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none


EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

Looking at the charts, we see that although EUR/USD rebounded slightly yesterday, this "improvement" was very temporary and currency bears pushed the exchange rate lower earlier today. Thanks to this drop the pair came back under the March high, which means that our previous commentary on this currency pair is up-to-date:

(...) EUR/USD tested the strength of the upper border of the brown rising trend channel, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (both marked on the weekly chart) and the 112.8% Fibonacci extension (seen on the daily chart), which resulted in a comeback below the March high. Additionally, the sell signal generated by the RSI remains in place, supporting currency bears. On top of that, the CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator are very close to generating sell signals, which suggests that reversal and lower values of the exchange rate are just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook:  bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at 1.1052 and the initial downside target at 1.0521) are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart
Larger Image

Quoting our previous commentary on this currency pair:

(...) the combination of the lower border of the brown declining trend channel and the lower line of the blue trend channel (both marked on the weekly chart) triggered a rebound, which took the exchange rate above the upper line of the brown declining trend channel seen on the daily chart. Earlier today, the pair moved a bit lower, which looks like a verification of the earlier breakout. If this is the case, we’ll see further improvement and a test of the green zone (marked on the daily chart in the coming days.

From today’s point of view, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and USD/JPY reached our upside target yesterday. What’s next? Taking into account the green resistance zone and the current position of the daily indicators it seems that we may see a pullback in the coming days.

Nevertheless, when we zoom out our picture and take a closer look at the medium-term chart below, we see that the buy signals generated by the weekly indicators remain in cards, supporting currency bulls and further improvement.

USD/JPY Weekly Chart
Larger Image

Therefore, even if USD/JPY moves a bit lower in the very short-term perspective, we believe that higher values of the exchange rate are just a matter of time. This means that if the exchange rate breaks above the green zone, we’ll see (at least) a test of the upper border of the medium-term brown declining trend channel in the following days.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: bullish
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at 107.62 and the initial upside target at 111.16) are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

USD/CAD Daily Chart
Larger Image

On the daily chart, we see that although USD/CAD broke above the December high and the orange resistance zone, currency bulls didn’t hold gained levels, which resulted in a pullback earlier today. Thanks to this move, the pair invalidated the earlier breakout, which is a negative development - especially when we factor in the current position of the daily indicators. Nevertheless, this event will be more bearish and reliable only if USD/CAD closes today’s session under the previous peak and the orange zone.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Thank you.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment