Gold rallied $26.50/oz. last week closing at 1,252.70 and above the 200-dma. Gold is finding resistance from the December trendline and the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback. Gold priced in Euros (lower) isn’t very bullish on gold’s prospects either. Cycles have us looking for a decline into mid-May and possibly as early as last week.
Longer term, despite the whipsaw in Nov-Jan, the 34-month moving average is a good indicator of trend. Currently, gold is above the moving average making the long-term trend bullish. Seasonality is bullish in May.
(Click to enlarge)