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The State of the Trend

The SPX closed 1% above our 2017 year-end high target posted here on January 1, 2017. Throughout the year, the index followed closely the 1 x 1 angle, and changed direction at anticipated cycle turning points.

Year 8 of the decennial cycle is mostly bullish with a notable weak 30 year cycle. 2008 offered the most extreme example of such weakness.

The bullishness of years ending in 8 has to be tempered by the fact that this is the second longest rally on record in the last 120+ years. And while there’s no law prohibiting the current rally from becoming the longest on record, the odds of a sizeable correction increase with each passing day.

To help guide us through the rest of 2018, we’ve prepared the chart below, including yearly pivot lines (horizontal lines) and cycle turning points (vertical lines):

By George Krum

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