• 4 hours Can Twitter Sway Economic Policy?
  • 7 hours Widespread Power Outages Hit New York City
  • 10 hours Equifax To Pay $700 Million To Settle Data Breach Case
  • 12 hours Netflix Struggles To Rebound After Subscriber Hit
  • 1 day $15,000 For Your Crypto’s Ticket To Visibility
  • 2 days The Next Fashion Frontier
  • 3 days What Is Africa’s Role In The New Silk Road?
  • 4 days Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 4 days Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 4 days World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 4 days It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 5 days Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 5 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 5 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 5 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 6 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 6 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 6 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 6 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 7 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Consumer Confidence Fails To Boost Retail Sales

City

Citing "consumer confidence", economists expected retail sales to bounce 0.4%. Instead, sales fell for the 3rd month.

(Click to enlarge)

The word of the day is "down". The Advance Retail Sales report shows a decline for the third month.

A revision took away a small bit of the sting as the December 2017 to January 2018 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent to down 0.1 percent.

However, the numbers, led by autos, are not pretty.

Sales by Business

Hurricane Impact Vanished

(Click to enlarge)

Except for building materials, the hurricane impact is history. Related: From Switzerland To Singapore: The World’s Top Tax Havens

Last autumn I stated there would be a hurricane boost with a payback in the first quarter. Here we are.

Year-Over-Year

Year over-year numbers still look good, but how long will that last?

Here's a hint: Compare year-over-year (4.3%) to September through November (0.6%).

Econoday

Econoday blows it again with this bogus comment: "There really should be no alarm on the consumer as retail sales in fact remain positive, evident in the total year-on-year rate which is up 1 tenth to a respectable 4.0 percent with the control group up 3 tenths to 4.2 percent. Should spending on services continue to show strength, consumer spending can still post passable first-quarter results."

Where did they dig this person up from?

Heading into the report this was the consensus opinion: "Retail sales are expected to show some snap back in February with Econoday's consensus at a solid 0.4 percent. When excluding autos, where unit sales were flat in February, forecasters also see a 0.4 gain percent as they do when excluding both autos and also gasoline. When excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials, control group sales are expected to come in at a 0.5 percent gain."

Consumer Confidence?

Every month I laugh at meaningless consumer confidence numbers.

Economists look at confidence, a coincident indicator of the stock market and/or gasoline prices and proclaim "confident consumers will spend".

They do, until they don't.

Spending Projections

Here's a chart of Consumer Spending Projections

(Click to enlarge)

Economists say that because consumers feel good, they will spend more. Here we have a survey that actually asks consumers what they will spend, but the Fed does not believe its own survey.

By Mike Shedlock via Mish Talk

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment