• 47 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 52 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 54 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 57 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 57 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 58 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 60 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 60 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 64 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 64 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 65 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 67 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 68 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 71 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 72 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 72 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 74 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 75 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 78 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 79 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

ElliottWaveTrader.net

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Trade War Impact On Markets May Be Overblown

Chart

For those of you who remember the movie Trading Places, this was a famous scene that I always remember when we see emotional reactions in the market after a downdraft.

And, when I went to read articles being published over the weekend, it seems they were all pretty much in agreement with the sentiment expressed in this scene: “You idiot. Get back in there and sell, sell, sell.”

Markets go up. Markets go down. When the market is going up, people are telling you to “buy, buy, buy.” When markets are going down, people are telling you to “sell, sell, sell.” Sigh.

But, let me see if I get this straight. The fear of a trading war is what will supposedly finally “cause” a bear market based upon everything I am reading. I find that truly amazing. So, a trade war is going to cause something that all these events did not (many of which were supposed to be much more negatively impactful for our financial markets):

Brexit – NOPE

Frexit – NOPE

Grexit - NOPE

Italian referendum - NOPE

Rise in interest rates - NOPE

Cessation of QE - NOPE

Terrorist attacks - NOPE

Crimea – NOPE

Trump – NOPE

Market not trading on fundamentals – NOPE

Low volatility – NOPE

Record high margin debt – NOPE

Hindenburg omens - NOPE

Syrian missile attack - NOPE

North Korea – NOPE

Record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico - NOPE

Spanish referendum – NOPE

Las Vegas attack - NOPE

New York terrorist attack – NOPE (market even rallied strongly) Related: Silicon Valley’s Billion Dollar IPOs

Oh, I almost forgot. I thought rising rates were going to cause this market to come down? But, what did rates do when the market was dropping this past week? It sure looks to me like rates were dropping while the market was dropping too!?

So, as I hear about wars, tariffs, gathering storms, and death crosses, many are building up the fear needed to kick off the next major rally in the market. As for me, all I want to know is how the market is moving through the levels we are watching. You see, I can ignore all the noise to which most of you pay attention, as the numbers tell me the entire story I need to know.

When I was looking up over 2600SPX when all we heard about were “gathering storms” and an imminent “market crash” in early 2016, it was quite prudent to ignore the screaming of the masses. And, I think that it is equally prudent to do so at this time as well.

For me, this market is rather simple. As long as we hold over the 2400-2440SPX support region, I will be looking for a set up in the market pointing to 3000+. It would take a sustained break of 2400SPX to have me concerned something a bit more bearish is playing out sooner than I had expected. But, even so, it would not lead to a major bear market, but a 20-30 percent correction, which will set up the next major rally over 3000. But, I still think the greater probabilities suggest that this type of 20-30 percent correction will not begin until 2019. And, I will maintain that expectation as long as we hold over 2400-2440SPX support.

By Avi Gilburt via ElliottWaveTrader.net

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment