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The Elliott Wave Count in Gold and Silver

Gold finished the Micro degree wave 1 up within an extending Minuette v up on May 12th at $730.40. The correction since is a Submicro degree zigzag {a}-down, {b}-up, {c}-down, with wave {c} down in process. Once Micro 2 down completes, Gold should rally into Micro 3 up of v. Unless Gold drops below $450, this wave count labeling holds up. Where it breaks down is if the correction underway Drops below the Minor degree wave 3 top from December 2004. In that case, the labeling would change to consider the May 12th top as the top of Intermediate degree wave 1 that started back in August of 1999, and the correction as Intermediate 2 down, a large degree correction. We do not see that happening in this monetary inflating environment.

Should the alternate labeling be occurring, a Fibonacci .382 retrace target for Intermediate 2 down would be $550ish, and a deeper .618 retrace would take Gold down to 435ish. Any way you cut it, we remain in a major long term Bull market in Gold.

Silver finished its Minor degree wave 1 up, and the first leg of 2 down, wave "a" down. Wave b up is underway, and the first two sub-waves of that, Micro a-up and b-down look complete. Next should be c-up of b-up, then a final decline into a wave 2 bottom, wave c-down. A Fibonacci .382 retrace would take Silver back down to $11.93, and down to $9.91 if a .618 retrace of 1 up occurs.

An alternate to consider for Silver is shown at the top of the next page, where all waves since last July are a degree higher than labeled, suggesting primary degree wave (1) up has just completed and a powerful correction, primary wave (2) has started. We find this scenario implausible as there is just too much monetary inflation going on right now.

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"Jesus answered them, "These things I have spoken to you,
that in Me you may have peace. In the world you have tribulation,
but take courage, I have overcome the world."

John 16:31, 33

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Here's the color coded, legend we use for our Elliott Wave count symbols, starting from the largest degree waves to the smallest:

 

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