• 20 hours Electric Vehicle Rebound Bolsters Battery Metal Growth
  • 2 days BlackRock Makes A Run On Asian Stocks
  • 2 days Gold Prices Surge Above $1,800
  • 3 days Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 3 days Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 3 days Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 4 days TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 4 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 4 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 5 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 6 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 6 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 7 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
  • 8 days Immigration Will Go Bust Without $1.2B Bailout
  • 8 days The Economics Of The Space Race
  • 9 days Why The World's Central Banks Aren't Yet Sold On Renewables
  • 10 days How Much More Cash Can Uber Burn?
  • 10 days Inside The Biggest Counterfeit Gold Scandal In Recent History
  • 10 days EU-U.S. Trade Relations Are Deteriorating
  • 11 days Over 184 Companies Have Bailed On Facebook
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Buy Signal for Stocks

Dow Jones Industrial Average   11,051
Value Line Arithmetic Index   1,925
30-Year Treasury Yield (TYX)   5.10%
20+ Year Treasury Bond Price (TLT)   85.28
Gold 1/10 Ounce (GLD) $61.14

The Big Picture for Stocks
The 4-year cycle calls for a bear market bottom in 2006.

Technical Trendicator (1-4 month trend):
Stock Prices
  Up (New, see below)
Bond Prices   Up
Gold Price   Up

Our Technical Trendicator for stocks gave a buy signal today July 24. One key factor is one of the psychology indicators we follow, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey of the percentage of bulls. It dropped to only 24% this week. I have also noted that a large percentage of money managers and analysts on CNBC have given bearish views lately. Always looking for the contrary view, these are indications that the market is sold out near term.

In addition, the stock price trends have turned upward. Note the chart below.

It is not likely that this is the end of the bear market. I expect another drop to new lows later in the year as we get further weakening of the economic data, especially from the consumer sector. But for now, things look OK. The chances of a pause by the fed is very high now, which would be more fuel for a rally.

Accordingly, in the Special Situations portfolio we are liquidating some but not all of our bearish positions. Sell the long position in the Rydex Inverse Mid-cap (RYMHX, 40.64), and cover the short position in the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR, 59.12).

Just a note about one of the issues on our Ducks of the Dow list -- Merck. Merck is on two of our four quarterly buy lists. It has been the talk of the town on CNBC lately. It is treating us well as we got in cheap a few months ago.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment