• 3 hours Did Facebook Just Become ‘Uninvestable’?
  • 9 hours Electric Vehicles Are Reshaping The Mining Industry
  • 1 day Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks
  • 1 day Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal
  • 2 days Canopy Growth Eyes U.S. Pot Producer In $3.4B Takeover Deal
  • 2 days U.S. Slaps New Sanctions On Cuba To End ‘Glamorization Of Communism’
  • 2 days The Unstoppable Electric Bus Revolution
  • 2 days Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs
  • 3 days Marijuana’s Bizarre Bottleneck Isn’t What You’d Expect
  • 3 days Climbing Stocks Weigh On Gold, But A Turnaround May Be Near
  • 3 days China's Economic Growth Exceeds Analyst Expectations
  • 3 days Gold Prices Fall On Record Global Production Estimates
  • 4 days Can Meditation Make A Business More Profitable?
  • 4 days America’s Biggest And Most Profitable Actually Got Tax Rebates
  • 4 days Central Bank Gold-Buying Is Chipping Away At The Dollar
  • 4 days The Three Assets That Outperformed The S&P Over 20 Years
  • 5 days Inside China’s Renewed War To Purge the Internet
  • 5 days Trump Blames Fed For 10,000-Point Stock Market Loss
  • 5 days Musk Draws SEC Attention With Another Controversial Tweet
  • 5 days The Overlooked Factor Contributing To Inflation
Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla continues to catch the…

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

CNBC Europe

LET'S LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART OF THE 1946 DOW JONES AGAIN

Please understand there is nothing new in these markets, everything is simply a repeat of the past.

For some time I have been saying the "pattern of trending" from 1946 would be a good roadmap for the current market and two weeks ago I put up this chart and indicated the pattern of trending continued to be exact. Last week I indicated the two specific patterns that needed to occur to make this forecast wrong and neither of those occurred. The decline in 1946 was 15 trading days and the next advance was 90 calendar days to complete the bull campaign.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT OUR CURRENT MARKET USING THE S&P 500

The 1946 decline was 15 trading days and the current decline was 14 trading days. The percentage decline the 1946 was greater at 11% versus the current 6%. That might give this circumstance a larger advance above the previous high. If it replicates 1946 the high price will be 1491 or if it extends that price due to the smaller correction it will go to the price of 1521. The odds still favor a 90 calendar day run from this last low and put the market up into June 12th although the last 45 days of that run will be a sideways distribution. The only thing that could get in the way of that forecast is the date around April 12th but for now I still have a lot of confidence in this forecast.

LET'S LOOK AT THE FTSE 100 INDEX

Last week we looked at how fast move start from False Break patterns or breaking to new lows and recovering. Also I noted that the direction of the trend determines the significance of the pattern. So double bottoms in downtrends are meaningless but double bottoms in uptrends can be powerful patterns. So if this uptrend is intact the move up should have been strong and it has been. Since the high was a function of a 144 calendar day cycle, 180 days or the first few days this week should bring in a countertrend down. It looks like there should be a new high to 6556** or even 6661 and then this trend is at risk of completing.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment