• 802 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 802 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 804 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,204 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,209 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,211 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,214 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,214 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,215 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,217 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,217 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,221 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,221 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,222 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,224 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,225 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,228 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,229 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,229 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,231 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The US Trade Deficit - Cause for Concern?

Can the US trade deficit continue forever? Will there come a time when foreigners will become less likely to hold US denominated assets? Should such a time arrive, the US Federal Reserve will be forced to increase interests rates to prevent a collapse of the US dollar. This would be catastrophic to the US housing market and US economy as a whole.

Imagine an American counterfeiter who uses the fraudulent dollars to purchase Chinese goods. What would you say of such a scenario? Now imagine a US Central Bank that creates money "out of thin air", places that money into a bank, where upon the bank lends it to an American importer who then uses them to purchase Chinese goods.

Two things are obvious: 1) the Americans are getting a sweet deal ... so long as it continues, and 2) an emerging US trade deficit. What would occur should the Chinese cease to continue playing the game, or worse yet, use these dollars to purchase actual goods while the money still has value?

The US dollars have value so long as market participants attribute value to them. In 1934, the US Gold Reserve Act lowered the value of the US dollar from just over US$20 an ounce to US$35 an ounce. In 1933, the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration outlawed private ownership of gold except for the purposes of jewellery. In 1971, the Nixon administration closed the gold window to eliminate the concern that foreigners, whom could still exchange US dollars for gold, would completely drain the US gold treasury.

The US dollar has been on a turbulent journey ever since but the overall trend is clear - down. As long as the US Federal Reserve continues to inflate the money supply, how can the dollars ever increase in value?

The US trade deficit is not the CAUSE of an economic activity, it is the RESULT of monetary inflation by the US Federal Reserve. Protectionism, tariffs, unfair trading practices and other such political rhetoric surrounding the trade deficit will never work because they do not address the actual cause.

Then again, that never really was their purpose to begin with.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment