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When the 'Hum' Turns into a 'Tune'

We don't think the 'Fat Lady' is ready to sing, but the turning point of the July 2006 to date rally may be upon us. I'll rely on the Elliott Wave experts to give a reading of whether we're in Wave 4 of a 5-wave advance, or if the sharp advance from March was it for 5.

My personal feeling is that it's over, and we should run for cover. The behavior of the Dow at 13,100, the 50-day moving average, and at the 200-day moving average 12,386 will give additional hints.

Watch bonds - the action of yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds around 5.25% will provide clues. Resistance there should hold for a while; if not… the 'Fat lady' may turn into tune.

It has become too easy to write puts to feed the perma-bears - saw that backfire twenty years ago - could happen again.

Don't get caught up in analogs comparing crashes in 1987 and 1929 to this market action; I believe both had 54 days from peak to crash. It's trickier this time; the China factor, the Fed put introduced by Greenspan, and the huge position in outstanding derivative bets.

 

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