• 7 hours Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks
  • 13 hours Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal
  • 1 day Canopy Growth Eyes U.S. Pot Producer In $3.4B Takeover Deal
  • 1 day U.S. Slaps New Sanctions On Cuba To End ‘Glamorization Of Communism’
  • 2 days The Unstoppable Electric Bus Revolution
  • 2 days Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs
  • 2 days Marijuana’s Bizarre Bottleneck Isn’t What You’d Expect
  • 2 days Climbing Stocks Weigh On Gold, But A Turnaround May Be Near
  • 3 days China's Economic Growth Exceeds Analyst Expectations
  • 3 days Gold Prices Fall On Record Global Production Estimates
  • 3 days Can Meditation Make A Business More Profitable?
  • 3 days America’s Biggest And Most Profitable Actually Got Tax Rebates
  • 4 days Central Bank Gold-Buying Is Chipping Away At The Dollar
  • 4 days The Three Assets That Outperformed The S&P Over 20 Years
  • 4 days Inside China’s Renewed War To Purge the Internet
  • 4 days Trump Blames Fed For 10,000-Point Stock Market Loss
  • 5 days Musk Draws SEC Attention With Another Controversial Tweet
  • 5 days The Overlooked Factor Contributing To Inflation
  • 5 days Does Capitalism Need An Upgrade?
  • 6 days Next Major Stock Market Selloff Could Spark A Bull Run For Gold
Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla continues to catch the…

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

CNBC PowerLunch Europe


Last week T-Bonds ended the capitulation move at the "obvious" support. They should now consolidate the fast move down before heading to 95. This consolidation should take some time, could be as short as three weeks but more than likely as long as 3 to 4 months. I need to see some further price action to forecast when the next move down will occur.


When crude came down to the "obvious" support in May I indicated if it could rally more than 4 days it was likely to go up and test the previous high. An intermediate term counter trend will usually have three tests of a resistance or three drives against resistance. If crude is going to trend down this is the resistance that is significant. 80% of counter trend rallies stop at 3/8 retracement and that was the price of the spike high at the end of March. The technical pattern of trending the next few weeks is very important and will determine if crude is going to resume the down trend.


Whenever markets struggle they are setting up for a fast move. Notice in 1995 how the index struggled up (where I've drawn an arrow) and that struggle was resolved to the upside. That fast move was resulted in another struggle that was resolved to the downside. Now the index is struggling down with 12 months up and 18 months down and there are some cycles to indicate a possible low. At this point I'm not confident how this struggling trend down will be resolved as it could test the lows or produce a higher low but it is time to pay attention and a fast trend will materialize soon.


The move up in May was weak and weak moves normally are followed by fast moves down. This move down was only 4 days and only 53 points and both those numbers keep the up trend intact. My forecast was for the index to test the "obvious" support of the February high and I could be wrong. Since the index didn't hit the normal exhaustion percentage on this run up it could show another spike up. I still believe this is starting a larger distribution pattern, but a spike above the last high to get bullish consensus up to extreme levels and then correct down to the forecast level is a probability with only 4 days down. Remember, one to four days is the normal counter trend time period for a fast trend. If there is a high in this time frame at this level it needs to be in the next few days or a further spike is probable.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment