LET'S LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART FOR THE S&P 500 INDEX
This chart shows the entire range of the bull campaign divided into 1/8th and 1/3rd. Dividing ranges into these simple mathematical divisions is by far the most accurate roadmap for support and resistance.
A small retracement for a leg in a bull market is ¼ and normal is 1/3 to 3/8. When a trend changes to bear from bull, a normal move down could easily run to 1/3 to 3/8 of the entire trend. Viewing bull campaigns that have run this length of time, a normal first leg down is 20% to 25% and you can see where that is marked on the chart. Considering this bull campaign has run close to 5 years, the percentage gained has been relatively small historically. Whether that means we can look for a larger or smaller first leg down than what is normal I haven't determined yet. But either way it should see a break of 1300.
It closed on the low today after a failed one day rally at important resistance. If that was a one day counter trend the index is still in a fast move down and should see 1419 quickly.
THE DAILY S&P CHART
The daily S & P 500 chart below shows where the 90/135 cycles started and does leave the index vulnerable to a bear campaign and a large move down. Starting from a point below the lowest low is very unusual but the movement down indicates their validity.