• 777 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 777 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 779 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,178 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,183 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,185 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,188 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,189 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,189 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,191 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,191 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,195 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,196 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,196 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,199 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,199 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,202 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,203 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,203 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,205 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Help Wanted Index vs. the Recession Question ...

(Posted February 1st. on our paid subscriber update)

For years, I have followed the government's Help Wanted Ad numbers. The Help Wanted Ads are a precursor as to what will be happening on Employment in the future. As such, it is an important indicator to watch relative to recession questions.

I created this chart on Saturday that shows the Help Wanted data going back to 2005. What is noteworthy, is that for the past 2 years, the December and January Help Wanted numbers have all shown a drop over the October/November numbers. The big event has been February, where the Help Wanted ads zoom up higher than the preceding 2 or 3 months.

**NOTE** This is what we want to watch for at the end of February. If the numbers come in with a similar rise to the past, then that would suggest that we will avoid a recession ... or the worse is already past ... and the stock market will act in concert to the upside with a strong rally. See chart 2 ...

How does the Help Wanted Index track with the S&P 500?

The Help Wanted Data from the above bar chart was plotted on a monthly S&P 500 chart below. (The data is released in the beginning of month for each preceding month.)

Note that it was in December that the Help Wanted Index fell ... and it fell below its support line. Is this why Institutions started selling in January?

What is important now, is what happens relative to February's Help Wanted Advertising. Will it drop again, or will it jump up like the two past years?

(The February data and chart will be posted on our paid subscriber site just as soon as it is released in early March.)

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment