Michael A. Alexander

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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Biography

• Oil Prices, the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil

  Published 22 April 2006 | viewed 14,474 times

  This essay was first published in May 2005. High oil prices are much on investor's minds today and a cycle-based examination of oil is well…

• The Paradigm Cycle Model

  Published 28 April 2005 | viewed 9,779 times

  Over the last four years I have written about a variety of cycles I employ to develop economic or financial forecasts. The Stock Cycle1 defines…

• Inflation, Monetary Stimulation and Interest Rates - A Cycle Perspective

  Published 07 March 2005 | viewed 13,328 times

  The behavior of interest rates over the last year has been very puzzling. Since the beginning of 2001, when the Fed began easing, monetary stimulation…

• Charting the Course of the Secular Bear Market

  Published 21 February 2005 | viewed 12,461 times

  Four years ago, I introduced the Stock Cycle and the price to resources (P/R) valuation measure I use to track the cycle.[1] Figure 1 shows…

• Private Investment Accounts: a non-solution to the Social Security Crisis

  Published 18 December 2004 | viewed 7,015 times

  Everybody is aware that a crisis in the Social Security system is looming. The enormous baby boom generation will bankrupt the Social Security system simply…

• American Political Cycles

  Published 29 November 2004 | viewed 7,706 times

  The American historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. (1888-1965) proposed a cyclical concept of American politics in which the political "spirit of the times", or zeitgeist, oscillated…

• Generations and Business Cycles Part II

  Published 06 November 2002 | viewed 10,606 times

  The generational interpretation of the post-depression era The generational model holds that the K-cycle has shifted from one-half to a full saeculum in length as…

• Generations and Business Cycles - Part I

  Published 06 November 2002 | viewed 21,335 times

  ABSTRACT: Prior to industrialization the Kondratiev cycle reflected biological generations. It's economic effect was at least partially induced by the generational war cycle, with its…

• How Low Can We Go? What Several Valuation Methods Have To Say

  Published 20 October 2002 | viewed 7,898 times

  Note: What follows was a post on the longwave discussion list made on August 25, 2002. It is based on a presentation I made to…

• Progress Update on the Current Secular Bear Market

  Published 23 July 2002 | viewed 6,240 times

  Recently, I wrote an article describing the progress of the current secular bear market compared to previous ones. Events have moved so quickly since then…

• Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K, Part 3

  Published 15 July 2002 | viewed 8,957 times

  In two previous articles [1] [2], I described how I have been employing the secular trend concept for asset allocation in my 401K. I described…

• Progress of the Current Secular Bear Market

  Published 01 July 2002 | viewed 7,759 times

  Identification of the secular bear market in advance In previous articles I have introduced the concept of secular market trends and relative P/R, a valuation…

• The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Three, Implications for Gold

  Published 11 May 2002 | viewed 8,541 times

  This is a continuation of a three-part article in which I examine the Kondratiev cycle in its modern form to form an idea of future…

• The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Two, Economic Implications

  Published 06 May 2002 | viewed 8,266 times

  This portion of my article attempts to relate the abstract concept of the "fall from plateau" to the economic situation today. A potentially useful way…

• The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part One, Current Position in Cycle

  Published 05 May 2002 | viewed 10,840 times

  In a previous article I presented a new way to look at prices called reduced prices. Reduced prices are a normal price index, such as…

• Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K, Update

  Published 16 April 2002 | viewed 7,735 times

  In a previous article, I described how I have been employing the concept for asset allocation in my 401K. I described what allocations I had…

• The Kondratiev Cycle in Prices

  Published 24 March 2002 | viewed 8,428 times

  This is the first of a series of articles describing the progress of the Kondratiev cycle over a long period of time. It is an…

• Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K

  Published 26 May 2001 | viewed 7,652 times

  In a previous article, I described how one can use secular trend theory to guide asset allocation. During a secular bull market trend long term…

• The Kondratiev Cycle and Secular Market Trends

  Published 12 May 2001 | viewed 11,274 times

  In my introduction to secular market trends I mentioned in passing that beginnings of secular bull markets (troughs in the stock cycle) were closely related…

• P/E, P/R and Irrational Exuberance

  Published 30 April 2001 | viewed 8,383 times

  Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University published his book Irrational Exuberance at the height of the NASDAQ mania last year. Shiller made the argument that…