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Markets / Other

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Turning Points

Jun 26, 2004 at 00:00

The market is at a critical juncture. If it breaks through to the up side, a substantial move can take place immediately, as all the cash which has been accumulating…

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The ARMS Trade

Jun 26, 2004 at 00:00

Let's get some historical perspective. From 1981 through 1989, a table buried in a lengthy Harvard study tells us that ARMs were an average of 44% of total new mortgages,…

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The Mortgage Finance Bubble

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

As we appreciate, Asset Bubbles are Always and Everywhere a Credit Phenomenon, and to ignore Credit and speculative dynamics is to invalidate one's research and pontification on the subject. I…

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SPX Volatility Extinctions 2

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

Absolute interday volatility is calculated by subtracting yesterday's SPX close from today's and dividing the difference by yesterday's close. An absolute value is applied to this quotient to ensure all…

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Gold & Miscellaneous Rambling

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

The nine year cycle is a fascinating observation that certainly presents many statistical "knowns'" in black and white. The second seasonal advance, following the 431 ST top, at 433 was…

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Gold - The Weekly Global Perspective

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

The market price of gold narrowed and narrowed into a tighter and tighter range, looking like it wanted to go higher, but banged its head, just below $400. Then, it…

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Book Review: Beating the Business Cycle

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

With this new-found obsession with the condition of the economy, America has been slowly educated in the realities of the business cycle. Many fell victim to the heavy downturn, first…

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Memo to Richard Russell: On the Margin Baby

Jun 25, 2004 at 00:00

This would suggest that as money supply grows there is about a 45% chance that the yield curve is flattening, or that as the yield curve steepens there is a…

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Does Leverage Matter?

Jun 24, 2004 at 00:00

It is easy to conclude that based on anecdotal evidence along with economic data that each of these conditions exist in the current housing market. Bernstein's latest report focuses on…

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The Big Blue - Contrasting Values

Jun 24, 2004 at 00:00

It is troubling to observe the path Alan Greenspan, Chief Central Banker, has taken since his appointment to Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Some would suggest he has been corrupted…

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