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Markets

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Stripped Down to the Basics

Jan 02, 2006 at 00:00

The Dow is the embodiment of a going-nowhere market. How well has "buy'n hold" worked for most investors? Still, looking at this chart in a vacuum, it is hard to…

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Inverted Interest Rates - Distortion or Danger Ahead

Jan 03, 2006 at 00:00

Eighteen months ago, the Federal Reserve embarked on a long, but predictable road of lifting short-term US interest rates, to reach an unknown "neutral rate," that would neither stimulate nor…

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US Economy and Productivity: Some Truths and Fallacies

Jan 02, 2006 at 00:00

Economics is a highly theoretical discipline with particular characteristics of its own, the main one being that economic problems tend to require long chains of complex reasoning. It is this…

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Gold Update 4

Jan 02, 2006 at 00:00

Our last intra-day update of Christmas Eve was looking for the end of the impulse wave that had begun on the 21st December. The graph below left the possibility that…

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2005 In My Rear View Mirror - Are You Listening?

Jan 02, 2006 at 00:00

You should know me well enough by now to know that I avoid prediction at all costs. There are some things to consider though, that might impact our adaptive and…

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The Many Faces Of Liquidity

Jan 01, 2006 at 00:00

If there's one issue that probably all market participants, whether bull or bear, can agree upon, it's that the global economy and financial markets have been very big beneficiaries of…

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The End of the Innocence

Jan 01, 2006 at 00:00

As a Canadian, I live in a country whose government [or at least their Central Bank] has divorced itself from sound money. It being a matter of factual historical record…

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Technical Market Report

Dec 31, 2005 at 00:00

Since 1965, during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle, the market as measured by the NASDAQ composite (OTC) has been down 3 times during the last 4 trading days…

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Affordable Housing

Dec 31, 2005 at 00:00

The bottom line is real wages are declining, bankruptcies are skyrocketing, consumer debt is soaring, and equity extraction from homes is used for routine consumption. This is happening in a…

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The Yield Curve

Dec 31, 2005 at 00:00

The level of attention to the recent and mild inversion of the yield curve has bordered on hysteria in the media. Does it portend a recession? Or is, as Ethan…