Markets

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

The dollar has been declining now for over two years, yet the inevitable adjustment period has not even begun. Importantly, the Fed's misguided war against deflation has tremendously distorted our…

Nov 20, 2004 at 00:00

The Fed's recent rate hikes have been "no brainers." The economy has been growing above its long-term trend and the fed funds rate has been below the CPI inflation rate.…

Nov 20, 2004 at 00:00

We thought it might be useful to readers to lay out the various stages of dollar collapse we see coming down the pike. In particular, we will be looking for…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

Fixed income portfolio managers remained bearish last week (RT survey up 1 point to 40% bullish). Specs are long +101k contracts in the 10-year Note futures, same as the previous…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

One of the CRB index's greatest strengths is the fact its 17 components are equally weighted. Equal weighting assures that no price increase in any single commodity, like oil, can…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

The ability of the NDX/Dow ratio to define the intermediate-term trend in the US stock market, particularly since the 'bubble peak' during the first quarter of 2000, is illustrated by…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

So, what does it all mean anyway? GSE? No doubt, most would argue that it means Government Sponsored Entity like Fannie Mae, Freddie, Farmer or even Ginnie - and they…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

Because the market is overbought, sentiment figures show too much optimism, the bull market is two years old, and stock prices are generally expensive - there is a good chance…

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

As long-time readers of this newsletter know, there is probably no better way to gauge the dominant consensus about the future direction of stocks, interest rates, the dollar, etc., than…

Nov 18, 2004 at 00:00

Never have we seen so many confused commentaries. Most analysts are groping in this market now, blinking in the golden glare of a strutting gold price. Isn't it wonderful! After…