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Markets

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Greenspan Watch

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

The dollar has been declining now for over two years, yet the inevitable adjustment period has not even begun. Importantly, the Fed's misguided war against deflation has tremendously distorted our…

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Tough Decisions Ahead For The Fed

Nov 20, 2004 at 00:00

The Fed's recent rate hikes have been "no brainers." The economy has been growing above its long-term trend and the fed funds rate has been below the CPI inflation rate.…

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The Three Stages of a Dollar Collapse

Nov 20, 2004 at 00:00

We thought it might be useful to readers to lay out the various stages of dollar collapse we see coming down the pike. In particular, we will be looking for…

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BondWorks

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

Fixed income portfolio managers remained bearish last week (RT survey up 1 point to 40% bullish). Specs are long +101k contracts in the 10-year Note futures, same as the previous…

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Real Commodities Bull

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

One of the CRB index's greatest strengths is the fact its 17 components are equally weighted. Equal weighting assures that no price increase in any single commodity, like oil, can…

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The Stock Market: Why this year has not been simple

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

The ability of the NDX/Dow ratio to define the intermediate-term trend in the US stock market, particularly since the 'bubble peak' during the first quarter of 2000, is illustrated by…

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To GSE or Not to GSE?

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

So, what does it all mean anyway? GSE? No doubt, most would argue that it means Government Sponsored Entity like Fannie Mae, Freddie, Farmer or even Ginnie - and they…

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One-Day Reversal

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

Because the market is overbought, sentiment figures show too much optimism, the bull market is two years old, and stock prices are generally expensive - there is a good chance…

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A Walk Down Contrarian Street

Nov 19, 2004 at 00:00

As long-time readers of this newsletter know, there is probably no better way to gauge the dominant consensus about the future direction of stocks, interest rates, the dollar, etc., than…

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Gold - The Weekly Global Perspective

Nov 18, 2004 at 00:00

Never have we seen so many confused commentaries. Most analysts are groping in this market now, blinking in the golden glare of a strutting gold price. Isn't it wonderful! After…