As Americans practice the new art of patience in awaiting election results, which could take days, hundreds of scenarios are being tossed around and the polls have been rendered largely useless.
Joe Biden is leading ?Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election, but it doesn’t guarantee him a victory, just as it didn’t back in 2016 when Clinton also had a clear lead.
Democratic nominee Biden currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics index of polls in key battleground states by 4.1 percentage points.
But the uncertainty prompted prominent Republican Party strategist and pollster Frank Luntz to tell Fox News last week that If Trump defied the polls again in 2020, 'my profession is done.'
In the most recent speculation, Luntz told CNBC that President Trump must win Florida, Ohio and North Carolina to get re-elected. “If Donald Trump wins all three of them, he’s going to be in this…If Biden wins even one of those three, it’s Biden’s presidency,” Luntz said.
According to the latest polls, Biden has a slim advantage over Trump in all three states. In Ohio and Florida, Biden led Trump by 47 percent to 42 percent with some nine percent of the polled still undecided. In North Carolina, Biden 49% while Trump had 47% of the vote.
Actually, in all six swing states Biden holds narrow leads over Trump, 50% to 46%. But as we learned in 2016, that may not mean as much as it seems to.
For investors, the speculation is an even higher stakes game and the financial sector is just as polarized as everything else.
The banking and oil sectors would clearly prefer Trump to be re-elected, while tech companies are rooting for Biden.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer is warning investors that stocks will dip regardless of who wins, creating a great buying opportunity.
Businesses in big cities, however, have other concerns.
Photographs of boarded up businesses from Boston and New York to LA and San Diego illustrated just how worried Americans are that violence and rioting could follow the vote, especially if Biden wins and Trump refuses to step down, claiming a rigged election.
Still, the post-election pullback might last longer than Cramer is suggesting. Both Republicans and Democrats have prepared for the possibility of court battles after the election. President Trump has already publicly stated he could rely on the courts to deliver him a victory.
And it’s not just elections that are causing stock market jitters.
Another wave of COVID-19 is sparking concerns of another lockdown.
So, if stocks seem too risky, there are alternative ways to make money during the US presidential election.
UK-based bet shop Betfair has reported the biggest ever political bet being placed, with one player betting £1 million ($1.25 million) on a Biden victory. In general, bet shops favor Biden in the race with 1:54 odds, which would give the lucky winner over $1.8 million in cash. But a Trump victory would double that bet.
By Josh Owens for Safehaven.com
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