For The Record: 2008, 1929 and 1873 Bubbles

By: Bob Hoye | Fri, Jan 9, 2009
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The establishment promised that nothing could go wrong.

"The truth is that Fed governors, together with their crack staff of Ph.D economists and market analysts, are as close to an economic dream team as we are ever likely to see."

- Gregory Mankiw, Harvard economist and textbook author,
New York Times, December 23, 2007

"So Congress tried to make sure it would never happen again by creating a system of regulations and guarantees that provided a safety net for the financial system."

- Paul Krugman, explaining interventionist measures installed
after the 1929 debacle.
New York Times, March 21, 2008

But it did!

Scott Stantis, Alabama, The Birmingham News


  High Initial
Rebound Final
2007 14165 8176 Oct. 27 9625 Nov. 4 7552 Nov. 20  
    -42% +17.7% -21.5% -47%
1929 381 230 Oct. 29 258 Nov. 4 199 Nov. 13  
    -40% +12% -23% -48%

  1873 1929 2008
Start of Crash Early Sept. Sept. 3 Aug. 28
• First Selling Concern Ended
Sept. 19
Sept. 21
No Pause
• Heaviest Liquidation Last Part
of Oct.
Oct. 29 Oct. 27
• Low Volume Final Panic Nov. 8 Nov. 13 Nov. 20
• Rebound Top May 1874 April 17/30 ? ?
• Bear Market Low Mid 1877 Mid 1932 ? ?



Bob Hoye

Author: Bob Hoye

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors

Bob Hoye

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