• 18 hours $12M Seized in Massive US-Dubai Money-Laundering Raid
  • 2 days China Launches Digital Yuan As U.S. Dallies
  • 6 days Squid Game Rampage Fails to Lift Netflix Stock After Stellar Earnings
  • 6 days Why Tesla, EV Stocks, Could Remain Highly Volatile For Years
  • 8 days Did Big Bank Earnings Just Signal ‘Real’ Economic Recovery?
  • 9 days The Cannabis Industry Is Looking To Fill The Employment Gap
  • 9 days Apple Capitalizes On Upward Momentum Ahead Of Earnings
  • 12 days Earnings Beat Isn’t Enough for S&P 500 Q3
  • 14 days The New World Tax Order
  • 15 days Is Crypto Finally Ready To Pay The Piper?
  • 16 days Is It Time To Buy The Global Gaming Market Dip?
  • 19 days Even The Mafia Has A Millennial Problem
  • 21 days Zuckerberg Loses Billions in Social Media Outage
  • 22 days ‘Pandora Papers’ Leak Reveals More Financial Crime
  • 23 days US Retail Has A Major Supply Chain Problem
  • 26 days China Has Set Out To Crush Crypto...Again
  • 27 days Top Performing Cannabis Stocks of the Year
  • 28 days Millennials Could Power A 20-Year Bull Stock Market
  • 33 days The Million-Dollar Question: Will China Bail Out Evergrande?
  • 35 days Bitcoin Is Driven By Testosterone
Oilprice.com

Oilprice.com

Writer, OilPrice.com

Information/Articles and Prices on a wide range of commodities: We have assembled a team of experienced writers to provide you with information on Crude Oil,…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

EV Sales Slowdown

An economic slowdown in many parts of the world and the phase-out of EV subsidies in the United States have led to lower EV sales this year, a survey by the Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy has shown.

The survey looked into more than a dozen EV penetration forecasts and found that two-thirds of these feature lower EV sales projections both for the short and the long term, author Marianne Kah noted. What’s more, the forecasts were less optimistic about battery cost declines, too.

Battery costs are one of the keys to mainstream EV adoption, so EV penetration forecasts prioritize the issue, forecasting when said costs will fall to $100 per kWh from the current average of $175-200 per kWh, that will make EVs directly competitive to ICE vehicles without government subsidies.

While in the 2018 survey by Columbia’s CGEP some forecasts expected the $100/kWh mark to be reached sometime between 2020 and 2022, this year’s survey revealed that the most optimistic forecast projects this to happen in 2023 at the earliest.

Another difference Kah noted between 2018 and 2019 EV forecasts concerned the percentage range that forecasters gave for EVs as a portion of the global fleet in the long term. In 2018, the survey author said, projections about EVs as a percentage of total cars ranged between 15 and 60 percent. In 2019, this range widened to between 10 and 70 percent, which makes the future of EVs even less certain.

The results of the survey are not particularly encouraging. Even less encouraging is the forecast that oil demand for passenger vehicles may continue to rise over the next five years. Then again, some forecasts see it plateauing in the period before beginning to decline after 2025. Related: Is Silver About To Break Out?

Yet, Kah noted, even if oil demand for motor fuel declines after 2025, this does not mean that total oil demand will decline “because of the growth expected in sectors that are more challenging to electrify or find substitutes (e.g., truck, air, marine, petrochemicals).”

After 2030, however, oil demand will likely begin to decline steadily, especially if all the climate change-related political talk from today turns into actual legislation.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment