Desperately Seeking Stability
At the worst of the two-year dot.com bust, the NASDAQ registered a 78% peak to trough decline. In the following five-years spanning 2002-2007, though the market came nowhere near reclaiming its former value, it nonetheless posted a 158% five-year trough to peak bull market return.
Casting aside technical's, given the current set of general fundamentals it is plausible that we may be in the midst of a four-year bear market that can feasibly take the NASDAQ down 64% from its 2007 recovery high, and marginally taking out the 2002 low in process. If such a scenario plays out, we could then anticipate arriving at a sustainable base sometime in the 2011 period.
Thereafter, a four-year bull market could rally the index by over 100% trough to peak into the 2015 timeframe. Such an accomplishment would be another substantial bull market recovery even though the market crest may be well below its 2007 peak.
Following a plausible 100% bull market recovery in the future, does your financial advisor have portfolio contingency plans should another five-year 75% bear market then express itself into the 2020 timeframe?
Did you or your advisor have such contingency assurances in place at the peak of dot.com mania, or at the subsequent failure of the 2007 top? If the answer is no to any of these questions, it is time to take full responsibility, pull yourself up by the bootstraps, get on the ball, and stay there.
Assurance and Accountability
At Elliott Wave Technology, we maintain and exercise permanent contingency plans for every possible market outcome. Should the above what-if scenario play out, we are prepared to profit from it. Should the market suddenly skyrocket back up to 5000 and beyond, we have similar contingency plans to join in such a party.
There is simply no excuse for any individual or advisor not to get out of the way, or fail to participate in major bull or bear market events. Unless an advisor or manager is unfairly constrained to a fully invested long-only protocol, benchmark comparisons highlighting losses less than those of the broad market do not provide an acceptable level of accountability for failure to take prudential action.
Bottom line - Be Ready for EVERYTHING
At the end of the day, each individual investor is responsible for his or her own funds, and to whom he or she entrusts to manage those funds. The first order of the day should be "do no harm", meaning that whatever you do, do not lose substantial amounts of money over relevant timeframes. The second order is to grow, protect, and preserve speculative capital in a prudential and consistent manner.
Power to the People
When it comes to the major broad market indices, Elliott Wave Technology is ready for EVERYTHING, are you? Bear in mind, we do not make millions managing funds, but instead are modestly compensated for providing an efficiently organized impartial framework from which self-directed investors can get the job done right by themselves.
Assuring Safe and Profitable Outcomes
In sum, we believe ourselves to be the "Simplicity Experts" in navigation amid broad financial markets. Our well-organized visual approach in chart presentation incorporates a disciplined blend of technical best practices. This presentation framework enables us to translate, organize, and simplify the otherwise complex, and extraordinarily challenging tasks inherent in navigating safely throughout the entire speculative process. The result is our NEAR TERM OUTLOOK, a simple but comprehensive trading publication, which provides clients with prudently actionable speculative guidance amid all time horizons.
Trade the Supercycle IV-Wave
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The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is to help active traders anticipate price direction and amplitude of broad market indices over the short, intermediate, and long-term.
Communications '09:
To more effectively convey dynamic trading conditions relevant to our technical publications; we have recently launched complimentary E-briefings for anyone interested in following our work. E-brief dispatches will summarize current market conditions and tactical trading postures across various time horizons and trading strategies. Those interested can obtain free-inclusion from the sign-up block on our homepage.
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