The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Aug 7, 2011
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For readers of my State of the Trend series, and those who study market trends, the 140 point SP500 drop last week should come as no surprise. And, although I'm sure the market won't follow exactly the path, slope and magnitude of previous declines, keeping history in perspective certainly helps to prepare for what the future may hold in store.


As dramatic and alarming as the above chart may seem, a look under the hood, so to speak, of the SP500, reveals an even more sobering picture:

SPX versus $ Flow

It shows diminishing support for the broad market and diminishing returns from consecutive QE's. A much hoped for QE3 may artificially change the trend of the market, but until $ Flow breaks above 2009 highs, that trend will remain highly suspicious.



George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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