• 303 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 303 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 305 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 705 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 710 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 712 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 715 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 715 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 716 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 718 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 718 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 722 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 722 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 723 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 725 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 726 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 729 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 730 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 730 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 732 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Market Outlook: Rebound, Maybe, But the Low Might Not Be in Yet

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT REBOUND SOON, BUT REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

Still the old cliche, rebound, maybe, but such a rebound most likely is a sell opportunity.

I've mentioned lots of evidences in 08/04 Market Outlook arguing for a rebound. They become even more extreme after the Friday session, so will maintain the conclusion that a sizeable rebound could be within 3 trading days (starting from 08/05). Listed below are all the extremes I mentioned recently. Among them, the T2122 is newly added which I hope you still remember is my ultimate weapon for watching oversold and overbought. It's not there yet, but close, worth paying attention now.

T2122
Larger Image

T2116
Larger Image

NYMO
Larger Image

Sentiment Indicators at Extremes

I've been blah blah in almost all my recent Market Outlook about the law of inertia, arguing such a strong push down, usually the very first rebound would fail. My main argument so far is NYMO missing positive divergence. Today, I'd like you to meet my 3 other witnesses:

  • Take a look at the bottom patterns when correction was larger than 14% (which means the push down was very strong). Personally, I even think we're now still on the very 1st leg down.

3 Push Down
Larger Image

VIX

VIX

VIX

VIX

  • By Friday close, we had another day that SPY daily body is completely below its BB bottom. Listed below are all the cases since year 2000. Also arguing that it's rare the Friday's low is exactly the low, at least it'll be revisited later assuming huge rebound starting from the next Monday. Also you can check my public chart list for more histories, starting from 8.3.6a SPY Daily Bar Completely Below BB Bottom - 1993.

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000

I have no solid evidences to talk you into believing some scary intermediate-term target. The chart below is concept only. Generally, most big pullbacks in a bull market ended at BB mid line. We're now at such a general target and if the market cannot hold here, then the next target would be the BB bottom which is around SPX 1,000.

SPX Monthly
Larger Image

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL    
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 4 of 6 *NEUTRAL  

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly *DOWN 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly *DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN 1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly *DOWN  
XLE & Weekly *DOWN *4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Testing long term support, critical time.
IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment