The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Mar 2, 2013
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From a weekly seasonal point of view, the SPX is currently navigating the most troubled waters:


And it is doing so remarkably well, considering that the trend remains up in daily, weekly and monthly time-frames. Since the seasonally weak period extends for a few more weeks, let's focus on the negatives.

The SPX made two lower highs and failed twice at the 1526 level. If history is any guidance, the most likely interpretation is that the index has entered another congestion zone:


While the DJIA made a new high, the Qs are being dragged down by the likes of AAPL, which has just broken below support and is aiming for our next support zone:


In summary, while the trend remains up for all the major indices, there are a few clouds gathering on the horizon. The outcome will largely depend on the ability of the SPX to remain within the 2012 channel shown above.



George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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