Redux: Beware the Ides of March

By: Gordon Long | Sun, Mar 17, 2013
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Updated from the January 2013 Trigger$ Edition


 

Friday was the Ides of March. In January based on our Fibonacci Ellipses as published in "Beware the Ides of March", we forcasted that the S&P 500 would rise to 1562 on March 15th, 2013. The result on the Ides of March was 1563.62. Clearly our little practiced tool of Fibonacci Ellipses must be reckoned with!

S&P500 Index Daily Chart

We were very specific when we spelled out the following:

"Wondering when this delusional rally will end? Where is the top and when will it be in?

There is one technical topping tool that has proven very effective in answering this question with a fair degree of accuracy. It is the application of the uncommonly used Fibonacci Ellipse.

In last month's Trigger$ we predicted the January rally within what we believed to be the controlling Fibonacci Ellipse. Now we need to view what that Fibonacci Ellipses is telling us regarding what is ahead.

SPX daily Chart - January 25, 2013

We are very close to a short term top, but we are not quite there yet. Traders need to understand that this short term top is not the Intermediate / Long Term top we have been calling for and still expect it to occur in the proximity of the March 15th Quadruple witch. Beware the Ides of March."


Nice Call, But What Is Next?

We now expect a period of SIGNIFIGANTLY heighted volatility between the Ides of March and mid April. This is expected based on the achievement of our Fibonacci Time Extensions as we complete the right shoulder of our Head and Shoulder pattern.


The 18 Month View - A Major Long term Right Shoulder Formation Pattern

SPX Head and Shoulders Pattern


Fibonacci Time Extensions

Our original MACRO ANALYTICS timing predictions (shown below) were based on our Fibonacci Time Extensions. This is a separate analysis from Fibonacci Ellipses but must 'plug' or we fail the test of symmetry which chaos and fractal theory dictate. We have a a very tight correlation that in turn matches fibonacci clusters and Bradley turn cycle dates.


Defining Chart #1 - "Delusional Distortion" Expectations

We drew "Defining Chart #1" below in early summer 2012, based on our expectations for Monetary Policy responses to weakening global growth. Our September call for QE3 and a 'Bazooka' out of the ECB proved accurate as we head towards our upper H".

The Delusional Distortation


Defining Chart #2 - Long Term

Our proprietary analytics are strongly showing the potential for higher nominal highs through the convergence and alignment of a number of technical studies.

  1. 1. A Gann target which aligns with a completed Megaphone Top
  2. 2. A trend line that centers the Gann Analysis,
  3. 3. A decade long Fibonacci Time extension that centers a Gann Analysis

LIKELY ENDING MEGAPHONE PATTERNS

(We laid this out in June 2011 as one of two alternatives expected)


Defining Chart #3 - Short Term

Our current chart formation reflects the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is itself the Right Shoulder of a major Long Term Head & Shoulders formation.

Here is OUR CURRENT CHART

Our MACRO charts on Central Bank Expansion and the signals from the Gold market suggests to us that our Ellipse projections are still valid.

2013 Scare

We expect a major scare in Q2 2013 with a counter rally in later 2013 based on unprecedented globally coordinated central bank monetization as part of post Quantitative Easing called OMF (Overt Monetary Funding). View our latest video: "The Macro Analytics: A Technical Update".

 


Hard Core Technical Analysis

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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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