Redux: Beware the Ides of March
Updated from the January 2013 Trigger$ Edition
Friday was the Ides of March. In January based on our Fibonacci Ellipses as published in "Beware the Ides of March", we forcasted that the S&P 500 would rise to 1562 on March 15th, 2013. The result on the Ides of March was 1563.62. Clearly our little practiced tool of Fibonacci Ellipses must be reckoned with!
We were very specific when we spelled out the following:
"Wondering when this delusional rally will end? Where is the top and when will it be in?
There is one technical topping tool that has proven very effective in answering this question with a fair degree of accuracy. It is the application of the uncommonly used Fibonacci Ellipse.
In last month's Trigger$ we predicted the January rally within what we believed to be the controlling Fibonacci Ellipse. Now we need to view what that Fibonacci Ellipses is telling us regarding what is ahead.
We are very close to a short term top, but we are not quite there yet. Traders need to understand that this short term top is not the Intermediate / Long Term top we have been calling for and still expect it to occur in the proximity of the March 15th Quadruple witch. Beware the Ides of March."
Nice Call, But What Is Next?
We now expect a period of SIGNIFIGANTLY heighted volatility between the Ides of March and mid April. This is expected based on the achievement of our Fibonacci Time Extensions as we complete the right shoulder of our Head and Shoulder pattern.
The 18 Month View - A Major Long term Right Shoulder Formation Pattern
Fibonacci Time Extensions
Our original MACRO ANALYTICS timing predictions (shown below) were based on our Fibonacci Time Extensions. This is a separate analysis from Fibonacci Ellipses but must 'plug' or we fail the test of symmetry which chaos and fractal theory dictate. We have a a very tight correlation that in turn matches fibonacci clusters and Bradley turn cycle dates.
Defining Chart #1 - "Delusional Distortion" Expectations
We drew "Defining Chart #1" below in early summer 2012, based on our expectations for Monetary Policy responses to weakening global growth. Our September call for QE3 and a 'Bazooka' out of the ECB proved accurate as we head towards our upper H".
Defining Chart #2 - Long Term
Our proprietary analytics are strongly showing the potential for higher nominal highs through the convergence and alignment of a number of technical studies.
- 1. A Gann target which aligns with a completed Megaphone Top
- 2. A trend line that centers the Gann Analysis,
- 3. A decade long Fibonacci Time extension that centers a Gann Analysis
LIKELY ENDING MEGAPHONE PATTERNS
(We laid this out in June 2011 as one of two alternatives expected)
Defining Chart #3 - Short Term
Our current chart formation reflects the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is itself the Right Shoulder of a major Long Term Head & Shoulders formation.
Here is OUR CURRENT CHART
Our MACRO charts on Central Bank Expansion and the signals from the Gold market suggests to us that our Ellipse projections are still valid.
We expect a major scare in Q2 2013 with a counter rally in later 2013 based on unprecedented globally coordinated central bank monetization as part of post Quantitative Easing called OMF (Overt Monetary Funding). View our latest video: "The Macro Analytics: A Technical Update".