Review and Forecast: July Crash?

By: Ian Thijm | Thu, Jun 20, 2013
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From last week's 6/14 Email: "The active Master Cycle (MC) suggests a 6/13 major Low and rally to 6/17 Highs. We should then see a volatile chop into 6/20L"

Actual: We made a 6/13 Low and rallied to a 6/18 High of the week and declined sharply into 6/20 Lower Lows.

From the 6/18 evening email and 6/19 Fed day early morning update:

"I have several reasons to believe we may be at a short term High today, including the bearish rising wedge and the pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and see a brief, possibly sharp, pullback into 6/20 Lows."

The last 3 FED meetings in 2013 were all short term Highs (yellow vertical lines in the hourly chart):


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1. 2/20 Fed announcement => 2/19/13 High
2. 4/10 Fed announcement => 4/11/13 High
3. 5/22 Fed announcement => 5/22/13 High
4. 6/19 Fed announcement => 6/18/13 High

Actual: We made a 6/18 Fed High, 6/19 went sideways until 2.00 pm High of day and saw a sharp decline into 6/20 Lows. The pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and the rising bearish wedge were among the reasons we called for a 6/19 Fed High and a sharp decline afterwards, although it wasn't expected to take out the 6/6 Lows, which is bearish.

I was expecting one last Higher High above the 5/22/13 Highs, before the actual decline began, but as the 6/6 and 6/13 Lows have now been violated, it suggests that the more bearish Scenarios are already in play and the coming MC High could be a lower High.

What's next: We should decline into the 6/20-21 Master Cycle Low right at the 6/21 Solar and geometric double Time CIT and see a sharp rally afterwards. As mentioned before, I have 2 Medium Term Time CITs (which is rare) due in July 2013 that bears watching. There is one cycle that suggests a potential Crash or sharp decline in July 2013, but let's see what kind of Highs we get first.

 


 

Ian Thijm

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

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