China Slowdown Crippling Asia

By: Gordon Long & Ty Andros | Sat, Aug 10, 2013
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With Special Guest BERT DOHMEN

Publisher of the China Boom-Bust Analyst
& Gordon T Long & Ty Andros

29 Minutes, 46 Slides

China Post-Crisis Credit Boom

With the aid of 46 supporting slides, Bert Dohmen, Ty Andros and Gordon T Long discuss what their individual research is telling them about the situation in Asia.

During the last six months China has injected nearly $1.6 trillion in new credit (21% of GDP) into the economy. If there can be a credit crunch even with that much credit being added to the system, then you know that the problems are big.

The crunch is in fact the result of one of the following:

The recent liquidity shock came from the realization that the government was no longer willing to provide infinite liquidity. In fact, they are trying to get control over the unregulated "shadow banking system," which is estimated to be around $10 trillion, although no one knows the real size.

The June credit crisis was the first big sign that the country's trillions of dollars in bad loans can no longer be hidden. Non-performing loans in China are monstrous and increasing by the day.

This has so far been hidden by the false GDP growth numbers released by the government. The official number contains governmental spending as well as "artificially enhanced numbers" from the party officials in their districts to make themselves look better.

China's private sector is already in recession.

China PMI

Small and medium size firms are facing a self-feeding avalanche of bankruptcies.

The reality of this cannot be hidden much longer. It is now surfacing.

China is the big elephant. A China recession could become like a tsunami around the world.

China is now experiencing a very serious credit crunch, similar to 2007 in the US that precipitated the global financial crisis. Anyone who expects improvement in China now is whistling in the wind.

Dohmen's prediction, without hedging, is that the contraction will accelerate! The only unknown: will the government launch another massive rescue mission as in 2009 and risk another, even bigger bubble?

THIS MARKET MAKE NO SENSE, AFTER YOU TAKE A STROLL THROUGH DETROIT THEN BEJING

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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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Ty Andros

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Theodore "Ty" Andros
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Tedbits is authored by Theodore "Ty" Andros, and is registered with TraderView, a registered CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and TraderVest Clearing LLC a GIB (Guaranteed Introducing Broker). He currently is the principle of TraderView, a managed futures and alternative investment boutique. Mr. Andros began his commodity career in the early 1980's and became a managed futures specialist beginning in 1985. Mr. Andros duties include marketing, sales, and portfolio selection and monitoring, customer relations and all aspects required in building a successful managed futures and alternative investment brokerage service. Mr. Andros attended the University of San Diego, and the University of Miami, majoring in Marketing, Economics and Business Administration. He began his career as a broker in 1983, and has worked his way to the creation of TraderView of which he is the CEO. Mr. Andros is active in Economic analysis and brings this information and analysis to his clients on a regular basis. Ty prides himself on his personal preparation for the markets as they unfold. Developing a loyal clientele.

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