DOW 20,000? or 5,000?? Part IV

By: Gordon Long & Ty Andros | Sat, Nov 2, 2013
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Dow 20,000 Image

Special Guest: Bert Dohmen
Publisher of the Wellington Letter
also with Ty Andros & host Gordon T Long

17 Minutes, 40 Slides

In Part IV of this series with tow noted expert market watchers, we ask Bert Dohmen and Ty Andros whether DOW 20,000 is directly ahead or DOW 5,000 ..... and when?

Both Bert Dohmen and Ty Andros firmly believe the financial markets are only being artificially held up by liquidity and credit flows and the market has become disconnected from economic and financial reality. Both cite when companies like Amazon make no profits and no one cares, it reminds both experienced investors of 1999, prior to the Dot.com bubble imploding. Through the use of 40 slides they share their thoughtful insights and experiences.

Bert Dohmen - Wellington Letter

Bert is as bearish for 2014 as he was prior to his profitable 2008 financial crisis call, for many similar reasons. He is somewhat optimistic near term that the markets will hold up through year end, but after that investors should be prepared for the worst.

Supporting his conclusions is the steady fall in consumer consumption and spending which he sees as presently getting worse. Consumer spending slowdowns usually precede market drops and it peaked in the US in May of this year. The steadily deteriorating growth in US real personal income no longer supports the current profit expectations and is presently only being camouflaged by Federal Reserve and PPT intervention.

Five Year Growth in Personal Income Chart

Ty Andros - Tedbits Newsletter

Ty is extremely bearish and believes there is a major market market move down on the horizon, most likely by late 2014. He fully expects markets at that juncture to fall below the 2008 lows. Of his many concerns, ranging from Dodd-Frank and Obamacare to Janet Yellen's "Tobin" direction, he points out to listeners the Wolf Wave in profit margins which helped him successfully navigate around the the 2008 crisis.

Megaphone Market Top

These are two well seasoned investors who both called the 2008 Crisis. Seldom have they been this bearish though both say these artificial liquidity addicted markets could keep going for awhile longer. They both share what investors should be doing now in preparation for their outlooks.

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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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Ty Andros

Author: Ty Andros

Theodore "Ty" Andros
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Tedbits is authored by Theodore "Ty" Andros, and is registered with TraderView, a registered CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and TraderVest Clearing LLC a GIB (Guaranteed Introducing Broker). He currently is the principle of TraderView, a managed futures and alternative investment boutique. Mr. Andros began his commodity career in the early 1980's and became a managed futures specialist beginning in 1985. Mr. Andros duties include marketing, sales, and portfolio selection and monitoring, customer relations and all aspects required in building a successful managed futures and alternative investment brokerage service. Mr. Andros attended the University of San Diego, and the University of Miami, majoring in Marketing, Economics and Business Administration. He began his career as a broker in 1983, and has worked his way to the creation of TraderView of which he is the CEO. Mr. Andros is active in Economic analysis and brings this information and analysis to his clients on a regular basis. Ty prides himself on his personal preparation for the markets as they unfold. Developing a loyal clientele.

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