Review and Forecast Of The Various Time and Cycles

By: Ian Thijm | Mon, Nov 4, 2013
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Forecast made on my last public blog on 10/3/13: "We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don't have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT."

Actual: We made an 10/9/13 Solar CIT major Low at 1646.47 SPX, 2 TD off the expected 10/7 Lows and which was the 35 week (green lines) cycle Low (click on weekly chart to enlarge) and we rallied a powerful 158.75 SP's so far into 10/30/13 High at 1775.22 SPX, which was another version of the 35 week Cycle (pink lines). The market rallied into long term 3/6/09L-10/4/11L and 4/26/10-2/18/11H parallel channel resistance at the 10/30/13H at 1775 SPX. The markets have been straight up since the 10/9 Solar CIT Low into the 10/30H, with only 1 TD pullback days. In the last 3 days, we have seen 3 minor back to back decline days so far, which is a Change in the trend (CIT) since the 10/9 Low.

S&P 500 Index
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There was a Time and Price Square CIT on 10/29/13, supporting the 10/30/13 High.
Price: 3/6/09L-2/18/11H = 677 SP's
Time: 3/6/09L + 677 TD = 10/29/13 => 10/30/13H.

What's next: Does this all means 10/30/13 was a major High? It is possible, but as all trends are up, surprises will be to the upside, so we must see some price confirmations either way.

$SPX Chart
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The 319 hourly cycle was either an 10/31H at 1768.53 SPX or the 11/1 Low at 1752.70 SPX. Any decline below 1752.70 SPX is confirmed bearish and lead to a test of the 1730-40 SPX area. Conversely, any rally above 1768.53 SPX is bullish for a test of the 10/30 High at 1775 SPX. The next Time and Cycle cluster to watch is on 11/7/13 as it is both a Solar and Cycle CIT.

Various notes: There are various Time and Cycles techniques to determine CITs (Change in Trend), Highs and Lows and below is the Raj T&C Daily Email order of importance:

  1. Cycles Research to find dominant or active cycles first. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent Highs or Lows+/-1, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 TD accuracy, as opposed to Fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks.

  2. Active Cycles that has a proprietary Vedic & Biblical numerology are Master Cycles.

  3. Time Research to find the Solar CITs that have a high 84-90% accuracy and Geometric CITs that have a 70-80% accuracy.

  4. All other Time and Cycle techniques are also important, but they serve to support the above two, these includes Fibonacci Timing, Master Time Code CITs, Squares of Time and Price, squared Dates from past dates, Astro CITs, Elliott waves, Fixed cycles, etc.

  5. We always need to consider the Solar and Geometric Timing CITs in combination with the dominant Cycles. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the accuracy to 90-95%, but if they don't, it will cause additional volatility.

  6. Cycle CITs. In addition to Solar and geometric Time CITs, there are also Cycle CITs. when cycles are found that predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows, but has many Inversions, it is not considered an active cycle, but it does produce future Cycle CITs, ie High or Lows.

 


 

Ian Thijm

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

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