US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

By: Lara Iriarte | Tue, Nov 19, 2013
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Last analysis of US Oil expected more downwards movement towards a target at 87.82 to 88.72. Price has moved lower and the target has not been yet met, the structure is incomplete.

Now there is more structure of this long downwards wave to analyse I am changing the wave count within it. Two fourth wave triangles indicate it is much closer to the end. The target has been recalculated.

USOil 1 Day Data Chart
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The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree. So far the downwards structure for the first wave at minor degree is incomplete, and I cannot say that there is yet a clear five down.

The labeling within the downwards wave has this week been changed to see the strongest downwards movement as within the third wave. Minute wave iii is extended and not yet complete. Within minute wave iii the middle of the third wave is extended (this is the most common extension).

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and minuette waves (i) or (iii). At 89.83 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (i), and this is the most common ratio so it has the highest probability.

When minute wave iii is completed then I would expect about four days of upwards movement for minute wave iv to end between 92.51 and 94.54 (within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree).

Thereafter, I would expect one relatively short fifth wave down to last about three or four days, and be about 6.70 in length. That would complete the entire structure for minor wave 1.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US OIL 2 Hourly Data Chart
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The two triangle structures indicate that two fourth waves have just completed. This indicates further downwards movement for a fifth wave.

There is classic technical divergence at the end of subminuette wave iii and minuette wave (iii).

For both triangles MACD hovers about the zero line.

Overall I expect about two more weeks of downwards movement to end minor wave 1, with a final fourth wave correction during this time.



Lara Iriarte

Author: Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Elliott wave is one of the more difficult and complicated technical analysis tools. When done right it can be uncannily accurate.

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally in 2009 to provide daily analysis of EURUSD and GBPUSD, then I began Elliott Wave Stock Market in 2010. Elliott Wave Gold began in August, 2013. Currently I provide daily analysis of Gold on this site, and daily analysis of the S&P 500 on Elliott Wave Stock Market for its members.

I have a science background (BSc) which has trained me to think logically and be evidence focussed. Over the years I have seen no market movement which does not fit into the clear and restrictive rules for Elliott wave structures.

I have members who are fund managers, institutional investors and professional traders.

If you want to learn how to apply the Elliott wave principle to any market my analysis service is designed to teach you, daily, how to do this.

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