Is Silver Likely To Decline From Here?

By: Przemyslaw Radomski | Wed, Nov 20, 2013
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Looking at the chart of silver from today's point of view, we see that at the end of the previous week, the white metal (similarly to gold) moved higher after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen told that monetary stimulus tools shouldn't be removed too soon. If you recall, several days ago we wrote that gold could move higher but that that would just be a counter trend move and would likely be followed by further declines. On Monday, two top Fed officials from opposite sides of the policy spectrum, fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could taper its bond buying program. Their comments pushed the price of silver to slightly above $20. Although yesterday Bernanke said that the Fed will maintain ultra-easy monetary policy for as long as needed, silver extended declines for a second session and hit a fresh three-month low. This, by itself, is a sign of weakness.

Please note that the price of the white metal is down approximately 33% this year, to some extent on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its $85-billion monthly bond purchasing program. To some extent, because the reasons didn't have to be fundamental, they could have been emotional/technical (silver got ahead of itself and needed to correct before rallying once again). In other words, there could have been a catalyst that has been undetectable using traditional fundamental analysis, which is why even long-term investors shouldn't forget to monitor the charts (or get in touch with someone who does).

Taking the above into account, today investors are turning their attention to the minutes of the Fed's October meeting, as well as a speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke and probably wondering what's next. What impact could the Fed minutes have on the price of silver? Let's see what the market thinks.

In today's commentary, we examine long- and short-term charts of silver to find out what the current outlook for the white metal is. We will start with the analysis of silver from the long-term perspective (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

Silver Weekly Chart
Larger Image

At the beginning of the previous week, silver dropped below the previous October lows (even taking intra-day lows into account). Moreover, the white metal not only confirmed the breakdown below the rising support line, it also moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the June-August rally ($20.80). This means that the upward correction might already be over.

On Friday, the breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was confirmed as silver closed below this level for the third consecutive trading day. This made the situation more bearish.

Please note that the RSI indicator is not oversold at this time, so we might see significant declines in the coming weeks (it's not that RSI is suggesting that at this time, but it doesn't "say" that it's unlikely).

Finally, the support line based on the 2008 and 2013 lows creates an initial downside target - something that silver is likely to reach (and pause / bounce) before moving to our final target level around the $16 level. At this time, this initial target is very close to $19.50.

This week, we didn't see any improvement. Instead, silver declined once again, confirming the bearish outlook.

Let's move to the short-term chart to see the very recent price moves more clearly.

iShares Silver Trust Daily Chart

On the above chart, you can see the breakdown below the 61.8% retracement more clearly.

There are also other interesting things visible on this chart. We can see that the recent decline in the SLV ETF materialized on significant volume, which suggests that it was no accident. Interestingly, we saw something similar (a visible but not huge plunge) in early June, which preceded the real downswing and investors had several days to prepare.

The second interesting thing that we can see above is the downside target for the SLV ETF, very close to the $19 level. The target is created by the red dashed line, which is a parallel line to the declining resistance line based on the most recent local tops. It is more or less in tune with the initial target for spot silver at $19.50.

Summing up, taking into account the above analysis, we can conclude that the outlook for silver remains bearish and further declines should not surprise us. We would like to stress that our price target levels are something that we view as very likely (meaning that they are very likely to at least stop the decline for a while when they are reached) at the moment of posting this essay, but given this month's volatility, it could be the case that these targets will be adjusted shortly.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

 


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Przemyslaw Radomski

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

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Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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