A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required
Released 11/25/13
Exponential Market Profiles Have Emerged
We Are Here
Traditional Regression-To-The-Linear Mean Required
An Illiquid Near Term Melt-Up Profile
The lower pane in the following chart of the week of data for the S&P 500 tells you what you need to know. The selling days are heavy volume and the buy days are thin, low volume illiquid melt-ups...
Carry Trade Consolidation Driver
Euro Likely to Weaken Temporarily Relative to Yen
The Japanese Carry Trade (aka "ABE-nomics) is consistently shown on a daily basis to be a controller of daily liquidity.
The Liquidity Pump of $65B/Month is being leveraged up significantly.
This is about to temporarily correct despite the Yen weakening as presently expected.
- JPY Must Continue to Weaken Expected
- EUR Must not Weaken Expected The Surprise Factor
Stoxx Chart - Fibonacci Time Extensions
The banking situation in the CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) is deteriorating rapidly. Poland has confiscated Pensions, the Czech Republic now want the ability to debase their currency, Slovenia has Cyprus like banking problems etc.
The Only Question: Who Is Left To Buy This S&P 500 Market?
Complacency Now Palpable
Euphoric Levels Excessive
Trading The Short Term "Pressure Relief" Trigger$
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