• 638 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 639 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 640 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,040 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,045 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,047 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,050 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,050 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,051 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,053 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,053 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,057 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,057 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,058 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,060 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,061 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,064 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,065 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,065 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,067 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Bonds in Perspective

The world is getting hyped up about bond yields lately with bonds of all stripes declining, as if we are in the midst of a debt Armageddon (we are and have been in the midst of a decades-long and still intact 'debt for growth' Ponzi operation). Here is some perspective...

Daily 10 year Treasury Note...

US 10-Year Note Daily Chart

Here's the weekly with a trend line and a lateral support cluster...

US 10-Year Note Weekly Chart

Euro Bund daily...

Euro Bund Daily Chart

Euro Bund weekly with trend line and lateral support...

Euro Bund Weekly Chart

Here is the daily chart status of 30 year (long-term) T bond yields, which of course go inverse to bond prices...

US 30-Year T-Bond Yield Daily Chart

And here is the ratio of junk bonds (HYG) to long-term Treasury bonds (TLT). Looking mighty similar, eh? Is bond risk on or off? Is equity risk on or off? Junk rising vs. T bonds usually indicates the former in each case.

HYG:TLT Daily Chart

Finally, 'the Continuum' ©, our long-standing arbiter chart of the current system, remains intact. Indeed, considering the bond yield hype in play already, I have significant doubts that the Continuum is even going to make another hit of the 100 month EMA (red dotted line) any time soon.

30-Year T-Bond Yield Monthly Chart

The chart above has served as the backbone to the current system of debt for growth and it is nowhere near breaking. We have fully expected an 'inflation bounce' and associated bond revulsion (yields rising in tandem). But the Continuum is intact and so is the system.

Filter hype, now as much as ever. There is growing talk out there about 'the end of the 35 year bond bubble'. When the dotted line breaks, the system will have done something it has not done in the post-Volcker era. Until that happens, keep b/s detectors at the ready.

 


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow @BiiwiiNFTRH.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment