Richard Duncan Talks Financial Repression
About Richard Duncan
Richard Duncan is the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on asset prices and economic growth.
He is also the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003); The Corruption of Capitalism (2009); and, The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (2012).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.
Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio.
43 Minutes, 15 Slides
"The Polices that come under the heading of Financial Repression I look at s policies that were necessary once the global bubble began to implode in 2008. The policies the Government, the Fed, the US Treasury, and Central Banks around the world have been putting in place are emergency measures just to try and prevent the next Great Depression from occurring. When you add all these measures together it has become to be known as what is called Financial Repression. I don't think the policy makers consider don't review it as repressing anything. They view it as measures that are absolutely crucial to keep the global economy from absolutely imploding. While there are some unpleasant side effects, (like savers not earnings enough money to retire), they view the alternatives as complete economic breakdown which would be far, far worse!"
"Policy makers consider these policies as the bare minimum to prevent the global crisis from becoming the Great Depression - Part II!"
A Global Bubble
"We have a global bubble which started to pop in 2008, but the policy response of trillions of dollars of budget deficit, financed with trillions of dollars of new fiat money creation has succeeded in keeping the global bubble inflated. We still have a massive bubble who's natural tendency is to deflate. In order to keep it from deflating into the Great Depression policy makers have continued to inject more credit! This is what Quantitative Easing is all about."
Government Now "Manages The Economy"
Richard Duncan's basic premise is that the government has been managing the economy since at least WWII and to make money investors must anticipate what the government is going to do next. As such he uses a framework to monitor liquidity and credit growth to see how they will impact the economy and force the government into what must be done to continue to manage the growth of the economy.
The broad ranging discussion includes:
- Developed Economies Stealth Strategy of Government "Debt Cancellation"
- The Potential of a Recession in 2015 /2016,
- Expectations of a QE4
- Reasons for $5T of Global Bonds trading at Negative Nominal Rates,
- Global Deflation as a result of Globalization and the resulting Global Over-Production,
- .... and more