It's Starting to Get Ugly Out There

By: Gordon Long | Wed, Sep 23, 2015
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Regular Co-Host: Charles Hugh Smith, Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

It's Starting to Get Ugly Out There

With Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long
28 Minutes - 21 Slides

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the US Equity Market Technicals. They position the technical charts which they go through in the context of the following primary sources of system risk to the markets:

1. Too much debt globally; public and private debt has skyrocketed since 2008.

2. Mal-investment due to perverse incentives: borrow money for stock buybacks rather than invest in new productive capacity, etc.

Global Consumer Confidence

3. Stagnant income/revenues: households, companies and nations cannot support more debt

4. The rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) has increased the odds of flash crashes and instability

5. Rising U.S. dollar has triggered capital flight from emerging markets and China

6. China's economy is grinding to a halt, crushing demand for commodities and commodity-dependent economies

7. Opaque banking: shadow banking in China, dark pools in offshore banking centers, etc. True totals of debt, leverage and quality of collateral are all unknown

8. Deteriorating collateral globally. How many of the 60 million empty "investment" flats in China can be sold for the purchase price? This is just one example of illiquid, impaired assets that are grossly overvalued.

The CY 2015 Revenue Recession


Just 3 Potential Triggers

Gordon T Long takes the lead is laying out three technical market triggers that are currently at play, which he feels will significantly disrupt the markets and heighten volatility:

  1. Have Entered a "Revenue Recession",
  2. Cycle Timing,
  3. Shifting Global Sentiment & Confidence

However, Gordon doesn't see this cyclical bull market to be quite over yet. Though he sees a scare coming in the near term, he feels the central bankers still have three arrows left in their quiver and until they are all fired the markets still have more room to run. He lays this out in his theory of an unfolding final "M" Top.

.. lots of charts here!

 


 

Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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