Gold Cycle Running Out of Steam

By: Bob Loukas | Thu, Oct 1, 2015
Print Email

Pushing the bear back

I predicted that gold would rally last week up to the $1,155 area, and was also equally unsurprised when it was rejected the first time by that declining (see green trend-line on chart) resistance line. Those are standard or obvious Cycle pivot points, but how it continued lower yesterday to fall well below the 10 day moving average was not a "typical" development if you're a supporter of the bull case in gold.

This is after-all supposed to be the most bullish period for gold, the heart of the 2nd Daily Cycle is where most of the solid gains are made during an uptrend. We wanted to see only a brief, possibly just an intra-day break below the 10dma, followed by a rally to smash through that trend-line. There is obviously still some time left for gold to rally, but the point is that it has taken up far too much of the 2nd Daily Cycle while remaining well below recent Cycle highs. During a series of bullish Cycles, new highs are made quickly and sustained relentlessly, they certainly do not languish like this.

So as I covered this past weekend (premium report) and warned then, I'm telling the bulls again to watch out. This is playing out just as past bear market Cycles have. That's four years' worth of Cycles and each one behaved and performed almost like this one has so far. And sadly we do not see any bullish divergences from Silver or the precious metal miners to hang some hope on. As I have consistently maintained, during any bear market we must assume surprises will move to the downside and that the trend will push the asset lower.

Remember though, Cycles depict the natural ebb & flow process of an asset. And in the very short term, a bounce out of a Half Cycle Low is now due and expected. Another test in the coming days of that resistance line is likely, but there is a very good chance that same resistance area will cause gold to fall sharply towards the next Daily Cycle Low. If the bulls are serious and want to significantly change this outlook, then they need to smash through the resistance area and make new Cycle highs above $1,156. Until that point, please be mindful of the dominant trend, it is much more powerful than us all combined.

Daily Gold Chart

 


Don't miss our annual Membership Sale, 50% off your first Quarterly Membership, ends Saturday October 3rd! Click HERE for details.>

 


 

Bob Loukas

Author: Bob Loukas

Bob Loukas
The Financial Tap

Bob Loukas is the founder of "The Financial Tap", a membership site dedicated to helping traders and investors navigate the markets while increasing their expertise and understanding. Bob has over 20 years of experience in trading the markets, is a life-long student of economics, and has an abiding passion for the financial markets. Much of his investment philosophy is top-down in nature, beginning with a global and macro outlook which is used to create a framework that drives his intermediate investments.

Bob is a leading expert in Market Cycles. His love of Cycles grew after his introduction to the work of Walter Bressert, one of the pioneers in the field. Cycles were a natural fit with Bob's passion for top-down analysis. As Cycles are intertwined on multiple time frames, understanding the global outlook greatly helps him to identify the long dated Secular Cycles. From that point Bob is better able to identify the shorter Cycles and to build a cohesive investment strategy. Bob's Cycle Analyzer, a software based analytical and intelligence system, is used to predict the future movements of the major financial markets.

Originally from Sydney, Australia, he is now settled and has been working in New York City for the past 13 years. His background and education is in Computer Sciences and he holds a bachelor's degree from Monash University in Melbourne Australia. He has extensive experience in the Financial Software area and has served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 management teams developing financial trading and reporting software.

Happily married with two children, family is a big part of his everyday life. Other passions including golf and long distance running. He plans to complete the 2012 New York City marathon.

Legal Disclaimer: The FinTap LLC is a content provider and publisher and is not a registered broker-dealer. By accessing The Financial Tap website and/or using The Financial Tap products and services, including without limitation any and all content available on or through the Service, you understand and agree that the material provided in The Financial Tap products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in any The Financial Tap product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You further understand and agree that none of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the information contained in any The Financial Tap product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

You understand and agree that any The Financial Tap product or service may contain opinions from time to time with regard to any securities mentioned in other The Financial Tap products or services, and that those opinions may be different from those contained in another The Financial Tap product or service. You understand and agree that, from time to time, any or all of the information providers or their affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned and that they may trade for their own account. In cases where the position is held at the time of publication, appropriate disclosure is made as of the time of publication.

You understand and agree that performance data is supplied by sources believed to be reliable, that the calculations in any The Financial Tap publication or service are made using such data, and that such data is not guaranteed by these sources, the information providers, or any other person or entity, and may not be accurate or complete.

BEFORE SELLING OR BUYING ANY STOCK OR OTHER INVESTMENT YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A QUALIFIED BROKER OR OTHER FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL TO VERIFY PRICING INFORMATION AND TO SOLICIT ADVICE AS TO THE APPROPRIATENESS OF A GIVEN TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT.

Copyright © 2012-2017 Bob Loukas

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com